Chinese firms accelerate in race toward driverless future

AFP Newswires, April 23, 2016

 

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Chinese Internet giant LeECO Holdings Ltd unveils its internet electric battery driverless concept car ‘LeSEE’,  during a launch event in Beijing, on April 20, 2016

 

Beijing: Chinese manufacturers and internet giants are in hot pursuit of their US counterparts in the race to design driverless cars, but the route to market is still littered with potholes.

While Google has been working on autonomous vehicles for at least six years, with the likes of BMW, Volvo and Toyota in its wake, more recently Chinese businesses have entered the race, from internet search giant Baidu to manufacturer Changan.

Last week, ahead of the Beijing Auto Show opening on Monday, two self-driving Changan cars made a mountainous 2,000 kilometre (1,200 mile) journey from Chongqing in the southwest to the capital in the country’s first long-distance autonomous vehicle test.

Another Chinese internet giant, LeECO, is also venturing into autonomous technologies, unveiling Wednesday in Beijing an electric car that can park itself and be summoned to its owner’s location via smartphone.

And late last year Baidu tested China’s first locally designed driverless vehicle, a modified BMW, with a 30 kilometre ride through the streets of Beijing.

Despite China’s relatively late entry to the field, analysts believe the country could become a key market for driverless vehicles thanks to a more favourable regulatory and consumer environment.

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) forecasts that global sales of driverless cars will reach 12 million by 2035, with more than a quarter sold in China.

Vehicles which automatically adjust their routes in response to real-time traffic information could solve chronic gridlock in China’s major cities, BCG’s Xavier Mosquet told AFP.

“If they believe this would ease traffic, Chinese authorities will do all they can to promote the development of this technology and then its use,” he said.

Robot taxis

Public concerns over the safety of driverless cars are far lower than elsewhere, according to a survey by Roland Berger consultants in 2015, which found 96 per cent of Chinese would consider an autonomous vehicle for almost all everyday driving, compared with 58 per cent of Americans and Germans.

In a country notorious for accidents, the promise of better safety through autonomous technologies could also be appealing.

The ultimate prize, say analysts, will be when mass transport firms such as taxi-hailing giant Uber, or its Chinese rival Didi, can deploy huge fleets of robot taxis.

“The real payoff for truly driverless technology will come when cars on the road are no longer owned by people, but are owned by fleet management services,” said Bill Russo, managing director of the consultancy firm Gao Feng.

“That’s where you want to think about taking the driver out of the equation. Mobility on demand is hugely popular here.”

In the Roland Berger survey, 51 per cent of Chinese car owners said they would prefer to use robot taxis rather than buy a new vehicle themselves, compared with 26 per cent of Americans.

With a ready market, China may soon become the top location for companies to refine driverless technology.

Swedish manufacturer Volvo, owned by China’s Geely since 2010, this month announced plans to test drive up to 100 of its vehicles on Chinese roads this year.

Changan, a partner of Ford, is set to roll out commercial autonomous vehicles for motorways from 2018, while mass production of driverless city cars is projected to begin in 2025.

‘Does the car choose?’

Baidu, meanwhile, says it will launch self-driving buses by 2018, which will operate on fixed routes in select cities in China.

Like Google, the internet giant already owns detailed road maps and has experience in electronic security, and a company spokeswoman told AFP it had had “very positive feedback” from the government.

But analysts are more cautious, predicting slow-moving autonomous vehicles will not appear in towns until at least 2020.

Production costs were still too high to make a robot taxi fleet viable, BCG’s Mosquet said.

“There are still many questions to be resolved” before fully autonomous vehicles can be put into public use, said Jeremy Carlson, a senior analyst for IHS.

He pointed to “chaotic traffic situations” on roads shared with cyclists and pedestrians, and less-than-adequate infrastructure.

Technology will be the first to see solutions, he said, but that still left regulation and issues around liability and insurance to be addressed.

For some, there are moral dilemmas as well.

“If you have someone jumping out in front of an autonomous car, does the car have to choose between killing that person, or swerving and crashing and killing the passenger?” asked Robin Zhu, senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

“If your car could choose to kill you, would you get in it?”

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-04-chinese-firms-driverless-future.html#jCp

CCTV News Interview on Driverless Cars with Bill Russo

China Central Television’s China 24 Program, April 12, 2016

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On-air interview on the regulatory and infrastructural challenges associated with autonomous driving.

Lead-in story begins at 25:55 and Bill Russo comments start at 30:10

Questions discussed:

Q1:
As driverless cars getting more and more popular in China, is it really a safe and reliable way to travel around? Without drivers being in charge, the vehicles are controlled by an intelligent transportation control network. People may ask: what will happen if the network breaks down?

Q2:
From the perspectives of legal regulation and framework, to reach the ideal goal of autonomous driving in the future, what can we do about it?

View the program: China 24 04/12/2016 03:15 – CCTV News – CCTV.com English

Bill Russo Hosts Panel Discussion on Urbanization and Mobility

Beijing, China, March 30, 2016

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The Future Perfect Series: Urbanization and Mobility

Urbanization. A Growing Middle Class. Pollution. Grid Lock. How are these factors shaping mobility in China? What solutions are being developed to ease mobility in China? How do you see mobility impacting and shaping lives today and in the future?

Beijing Bookworm, in cooperation with Ford Motor Company, invites you to participate in a discussion with experts from across industries on the future of mobility in China and beyond. It will be an evening of learning, discussion and idea sharing.

Topics for discussion:

  • China’s rapid urbanization and innovative urban mobility solutions for Chinese megacities
  • China’s growing new middle class and new white space of urban mobility
  • China’s ambitions for a sustainable future

Mr. John Larsen, Mobility Director for Ford Motor Company in Asia Pacific

Dr. Hai Jiang, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering at Tsinghua University

Dr. Kevin Mo, Managing Director of Climate and Sustainable Urbanization at The Paulson Institute.

Moderated by:

Mr. Bill Russo, Managing Director, Gao Feng Advisory Company

Click here to view a video recording of the panel discussion

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Reimagining Mobility in the China Context

Gao Feng Insights Report, February 2016

We are pleased to share with you our paper titled: Reimagining Mobility in the China Context. This article builds on the themes from our previous article titled Digital Disruption in China’s Automotive Industry, and offers a perspective at how the traditional value chain of the automotive industry is being fundamentally transformed by a new wave of “digital disruptors”.

Unlike traditional automotive OEMs and suppliers, these digital disruptors are leveraging mobile internet technology to present new and innovative “Connected Mobility” services to users, and in the process challenging the business model of the automotive industry. The century old hardware-centric business model of individual car ownership and product-based segmentation is transforming into a new form which leverages internet technology to deliver a broader range of services to address mobility needs.  Such changes are happening faster in China than in the rest of the world, where the size and scale of the urban population and the sheer numbers of mobile internet users are much greater than other markets.

In such an environment, China’s Internet giants (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) along with mobility disruptors such as LeEco and NextEV are vying to deliver an increasingly connected, electrified, smart and personalized mobility experience.  Coupled with the Chinese government’s regulatory push on new-energy vehicle adoption and sustainable transportation infrastructure, China has demonstrated strong potential to become the breeding ground for the Connected Mobility revolution.   As a result, Automotive OEM and supplier CEOs must learn to reimagine mobility in the China context in order to secure a strong position in this new competitive landscape.

We welcome your comments and feedback on our briefing paper or in general about our firm. We would be glad to meet you in person to share our data and perspectives in a fuller manner. Please let us know if you are interested in meeting and discussing directly how we can help you to operationalize these insights.

Thought leadership is core to what Gao Feng does. We will, from time to time, share with you our latest thinking on business and management, especially as it relates to China and China’s role in the world.

Best Regards,

Bill Russo
Managing Director, Gao Feng Advisory Company
bill.russo@gaofengadv.com

Edward Tse
Chairman and CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company
edward.tse@gaofengadv.com

Tel: +86 10 5650 0676 (Beijing); +852 2588 3554 (Hong Kong); +86 21 5117 5853 (Shanghai)

Digital Disruption in China’s Automotive Industry

Gao Feng Insights Report, January 2016

We are pleased to share with you our paper titled: Digital Disruption in China’s Automotive Industry. Recent advances in mobile connectivity, big data and social networks have infiltrated the traditional automotive industry and are beginning to redraw the competitive landscape among traditional hardware companies and digital “disruptors”.

The traditional automotive industry, where technology innovation has primarily been focused on powertrain and safety systems, must now contend with new forms of mobility services that are transforming the business model of the auto industry. The conventional hardware-centric, sales-driven, asset-heavy, and ownership-based business model with sporadic customer interactions is being superseded by more connected, on-demand, cost-effective, personalized mobility services. This new form of “connected mobility” is driving new technologies in the areas of navigation, analytics, driver safety, driver assistance and information virtualization.

China’s automotive industry is at the forefront of digital disruption as this transformation is happening much faster in China than the rest of the world, and China will leapfrog to a new era of personalized and electrified mobility.  The unique context of China’s urban transportation challenge, the high rate of adoption of mobile device connectivity, combined with the rapid and aggressive introduction of alternative mobility and ownership concepts will compress the time needed to commercialize smart, connected car technology and related services.  These conditions may permit China to “leapfrog” to towards a new era of personalized and electrified mobility.

We welcome your comments and feedback on our briefing paper or in general about our firm. We would be glad to meet you in person to share our data and perspectives in a fuller manner. Please let us know if you are interested in meeting and discussing directly how we can help you to operationalize these insights.

Thought leadership is core to what Gao Feng does. We will, from time to time, share with you our latest thinking on business and management, especially as it relates to China and China’s role in the world.

Best Regards,

Bill Russo
Managing Director, Gao Feng Advisory Company
bill.russo@gaofengadv.com

Edward Tse
Chairman and CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company
edward.tse@gaofengadv.com

Tel: +86 10 5650 0676 (Beijing); +852 2588 3554 (Hong Kong); +86 21 5117 5853 (Shanghai)

China Seen Laying Down $15 Billion Bet on Electric Vehicles

Bloomberg News, December 16, 2015

China to be `epicenter of electrification,’ analyst says

BYD, Zotye among biggest sellers of electric cars in China

China has found electric cars a tough sell even after lavishing consumers with subsidies and privileges. After almost certainly failing to meet a target to have half a million of such vehicles on its roads by year end, its next act is to achieve a 10-fold increase by the end of the decade.

The electric vehicles in service will fall about 26 percent short of its year-end target, according to estimates from the science ministry and state-backed auto association. To meet its 2020 goal of five million EVs, the government will speed up the construction of charging stations, reducing a major inconvenience for urban residents who don’t have personal garages to charge their cars.

“China will be the epicenter for electrification of the auto industry globally,” said Bill Russo, Shanghai-based managing director at Gao Feng Advisory Co., who estimates that China would have invested 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) by 2020 on new-energy vehicles.

President Xi Jinping has designated electric vehicles as a strategic initiative in a bid to upgrade the auto industry and create challengers to Toyota Motor Corp. and General Motors Co. The government is increasing spending after signs that the combination of research grants, consumer subsidies and infrastructure investments is starting to yield results. New-energy vehicle production surged fourfold to 279,200 units in the first 11 months, even as oil traded near levels last seen during the global financial crisis.

Local Winners

That has benefited automakers like BYD Co., Zoyte Auto and BAIC Motor Corp., which have led sales of electric cars. BYD, backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., would have turned a loss in 2014 and this year if not for EV subsidies from the central government, according to Barclays Plc. Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. said last month that it would target new-energy vehicles to make up 90 percent of sales by 2020.

The government incentives have lured consumers like Zhang Peng, 30, who decided to buy BAIC’s EV200 electric car after trying without success for two years to win a license plate in the bimonthly lottery held by the Beijing government. EVs are exempt from the ballot, which has worse odds than roulette.

Zhang also received 90,000 yuan in matching grants from the central and local governments, or almost half of the 208,922 yuan sticker price for BAIC’s EV200 electric car. The model costs about 7.5 yuan to run every 100 kilometers (62 miles), compared with an estimated 39 yuan for an equivalent gasoline-powered 1.6-liter Toyota Corolla, according to calculations based on the published fuel-economy rating and Beijing pump prices.

Battery Suppliers

The burgeoning demand has also helped battery suppliers such as South Korea’s Samsung SDI Co. and LG Chem Ltd., which supplies SAIC Motor Corp. and Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Panasonic Corp. said it is considering building a car-battery factory in China to supply lithium-ion batteries.

Among local component makers, Wanxiang Qianchao Co. and Hunan Corun New Energy Co. have more than doubled in Shanghai trading this year as investors bet the surge in electric vehicle demand will boost demand. BYD has climbed 34 percent this year and Geely Automobile has surged 79 percent in Hong Kong trading, compared with the 8.4 percent decline in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Global automakers are beginning to get into the act. Volkswagen AG, the largest foreign carmaker by sales, has said it will introduce 15 locally produced new-energy vehicles in the next three to five years in the country. Ford Motor Co. said this month it’s investing $4.5 billion globally in electrified vehicles.

‘Foreigners Coming’

“In the initial stage it was mainly local automakers competing with each other in the electric-car segment, but now the foreign players are coming,” said Ouyang Minggao, director of the Tsinghua New Energy Vehicle Center. “All kinds of electric cars will be here soon, including plug-in hybrids, which will lead to very big challenges to local automakers.”

The Chinese government is not alone in setting aggressive targets for alternative-energy transportation. President Barack Obama in 2011 called for one million electrified vehicles in the U.S. by 2015, a target that the administration scaled back in March after low gasoline prices reduced the cost advantage of plug-in and hybrid vehicles.

China, though, has stood out in terms of the scale of the state’s financial support. The country has invested about 37 billion yuan into the new-energy vehicle segment over the past five years, according to Gao Feng’s Russo, who estimates the government will devote another 63 billion yuan by 2020.

Funding Plan

The central government released a plan on Wednesday detailing funding for local governments to construct charging facilities, tied to the number of new-energy vehicles they sell.

Automakers will have to play by China’s rules if they want a piece of the market, even if they don’t believe in electric cars. The government has mandated the lowering of average fuel consumption to 5 liters by 2020, from 6.9 liters per 100 km this year.

“There is really no choice for the automakers, if they are required to meet the more stringent emission standards by 2020,” said Steve Man, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “Other technologies with the stringent emission standards won’t get you all the way to target.”

China Drives the Future of Automotive Innovation

Gao Feng Insights Report, October 2015

We are pleased to share with you a report titled: China Drives the Future of Automotive Innovation.  This new report is the product of a collaboration between Gao Feng Advisory Company and our partners at Tech Mahindra.  Tech Mahindra is a specialist in digital transformation, consulting and business re-engineering solutions, and is is also amongst the Fab 50 companies in Asia as per the Forbes 2014 List.

For global automakers, China represents the greatest opportunity for growth in the 21st century.  Since 2009, China has been the world’s largest market by volume, and will likely surpass 25 million units in annual car sales in 2015.  Over the coming decades, we believe that China will remain the key battleground for dominance of the global auto industry.

However, this battle will not be waged using the conventional automotive technologies which have been refined over the past century.  We believe several driving forces, which are particularly evident China, have the potential to disrupt the status quo of the automotive industry:

  • The unique context of China’s urban transportation challenge, the highpenetration rate of mobile internet, combined with the rapid and aggressive introduction of alternative mobility and ownership concepts, are compressing the time needed to commercialize smart, connected car technology and related services.
  • The automotive value chain is being disrupted by non-traditional players as they enter and compete to deliver mobility solutions.  Disruptive new entrants are utilizing big data to draw insights about customers’ mobility patterns in order to address their “pain points” and offer new solutions for their mobility needs.  Such mobility needs are increasingly being met through on-demand and shared services versus individual ownership.

We believe that the confluence of these forces, along with rapid innovation to address “pain points” associated with mobility in the China context, are positioning China as the catalyst to drive the transformation of the business model and technological underpinnings of the global auto industry.  In this report, we highlight the six themes that are shaping the future of mobility, and describe the key features and functions of future automobiles.

We welcome your comments and feedback on our briefing paper or in general about our firm.  We would be glad to meet you in person to share our data and perspectives in a fuller manner.  Please let us know if you are interested in meeting and discussing directly how we can help you to operationalize these insights.

Thought leadership is core to what Gao Feng does.  We will, from time to time, share with you our latest thinking on business and management, especially as it relates to China and China’s role in the world.

Best Regards,

Bill Russo
Managing Director, Gao Feng Advisory Company
bill.russo@gaofengadv.com

Aloke Palsikar
Senior Vice President & Global Head, Manufacturing Vertical
Tech Mahindra, Ltd
aloke.palsikar@techmahindra.com

Tel: +86 10 5650 0676 (Beijing); +852 2588 3554 (Hong Kong); +86 21 5117 5853 (Shanghai)

Bill Russo to Join Future of Mobility Panel at IAA Frankfurt

Frankfurt, Germany, September 15, 2015

Gao Feng’s Managing Director and Auto Practice leader Bill Russo will join a panel discussion to discuss the Future of Mobility from 5:00 – 6:30pm at the Marriott Hotel.

Topic: How to Succeed in Digital Transformation

 

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KEYNOTE SPEECH ON STATE OF CHINA’S AUTO INDUSTRY AT CITIGROUP CHINA AUTO CONFERENCE

Beijing, China, July 22, 2015

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Gao Feng’s Managing Director and Auto Practice leader Bill Russo will join a panel discussion titled Opportunities and Challenges of the China Auto Industry at 11:10am, and after this will deliver a keynote speech titled “China’s Automotive Industry in Transition:  Is the Golden Age Over?” at 12:00 noon.

Topic: China’s Automotive Industry in Transition:  Is the Golden Age Over?

Following a decade of rapid growth that culminated in a stimulus-driven surge in demand in 2009-2010, the China auto market sharply decelerated, with growth slipping to 2.5% in 2011 and 4.3% in 2012.  This brief slowdown was followed by 14% growth in 2013 and 7% growth in 2014, with overall sales exceeding 23 million units.  While the market growth has been spectacular, there are rising concerns on the sustainability of this performance as the market may be approaching a saturation point in the traditionally strong coastal regions.  Intense competition among automakers as they pursue emerging growth opportunities in specific regions and segments is anticipated.  Mr. Russo will address opportunities and challenges faced by different competitors as they deal with this a transitional period in the world’s largest automotive market.

  • Opportunities and challenges in luxury and imported vehicles market.
  • Opportunities and challenges in emerging provinces and cities, as well as in second and third tier cities
  • Sales and marketing strategies to exploit these opportunities
  • Strategies to diversify profit streams and maximize profit opportunities
  • Structural changes that may occur as the market transitions to a slower growth pattern
 Contact us for more information on this or other topics related to China and our auto practice.
20150722 China Auto Market Briefing vF Microsoft PowerPoint, Today at 6.05.33 PM

31°North and Gao Feng Advisory Company Form a China-Israel Business Advisory Partnership

Shanghai, China – May 25, 2015 – 31°North, an Israel-based venture advisory firm, and Gao Feng Advisory Company (“Gao Feng”), a global management consultancy with roots in China, today announced that they have signed a strategic partnership agreement.  Both firms will seek to combine efforts to deliver a unique and comprehensive set of services to their global clients.

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This partnership is intended to accelerate the commercialization of technologies related to the Internet of Things (IoT) from their incubation stage to full-scale deployment.  Israel, dubbed the start-up nation, is known for its disproportional number of successful start-ups, doctors, scientists, engineers, registered patents and NASDAQ listed companies.  Over the next decade, IoT related businesses are expected to grow exponentially, and China will likely become be the largest market for commercialization of these technologies.  The sheer size of its population and industrial infrastructure, the high rate of user adoption of social networking and mobile/connected technologies, along with the commercial aggressiveness of the companies competing in the IoT market, will result growth rates higher than that of other global markets.

China’s urban transportation challenge, the high rate of adoption of connected mobile devices, combined with the rapid and aggressive introduction of alternative mobility and vehicle ownership concepts from new entrants, will ultimately compress the time needed to commercialize smart, connected car technologies and related services.

31°North and Gao Feng will partner to provide services to help their clients leverage these forces to achieve competitive advantage.  The combined services portfolio will encompass topics including smart city, connected mobility, vehicle electrification and network management, among others.  The Strategic Partnership aims to play a significant role in assisting public and private sector organizations to accelerate commercialization of innovative new technologies.

“The Israeli technology ecosystem has grown to be one of the most advanced globally with leadership in cyber, industrial technologies, big data, billing systems, sensor development, mobile applications amongst others. China represents an exciting market for Israeli firms and we look forward to leveraging our strong partnership with Gao Feng to help facilitate between Chinese global and local industries and Israeli technology”, said Uri Kushnir – Managing Partner at 31°North.

“Gao Feng is a pre-eminent strategy and management consulting firm”, said Dr. Edward Tse, founder and CEO of Gao Feng.   The conditions in China – the market with the largest number of both internet and “smart phone” users – will likely make it the incubator for rapid commercialization of IoT innovations.  The partnership with 31°North allows Gao Feng to offer our clients a broad set of capabilities and deep expertise in the area of IoT and Connected Mobility”, he added.

Gao Feng Advisory Company is a pre-eminent strategy and management consulting firm with roots in China and global vision, capabilities, and a broad resources network.

31°North is a venture advisory firm positioned at the cutting edge of the Israeli technology eco-system, assisting global corporates with strategy and implementation of technology.

 

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About 31°North  

31°North is a venture advisory firm positioned at the cutting edge of the Israeli technology eco-system, assisting global corporates with strategy and implementation of technology solutions. We work with global players looking to integrate new technology solutions into their existing technological platform, often also dealing with technology road-mapping, regulatory support and standards work. Our day to day is spent analyzing hundreds of technology companies ranging from startups to mature firms, with the aim of customizing the best available solutions for our global clients. We specialize in the automotive industry, smart cities and cyber security and have worked extensively with OEMs, Banks, Governments, municipalities, Industrial firms, Global integrators and Venture firms

Our founders bring experience from both the financial/venture and technological corporate world with experience as executives in global listed companies, technology startups and major tech integrators. Our in-house expertise is extended by deep partnership with Venture and Advisory firms.

Connect with us on www.31degreesnorth.com
For Further Queries: 
Guy Pross | Managing Partner  – Tel Aviv, Israel | Email: guy.pross@31degreesnorth.com

About Gao Feng Advisory Company

Gao Feng Advisory Company is a pre-eminent strategy and management consulting firm with roots in China and global vision, capabilities, and a broad resources network. We help our clients address and solve their toughest business and management issues — issues that arise in midst of fast-changing, complicated and ambiguous operating environment. We put our clients’ interest first and foremost. We are objective and we view our client engagements as long-term relationships rather than one-off projects. We commit to helping our clients to not only “design” the solutions but assist in implementation, often hand-in-hand with the clients. We believe that every member of our team can contribute to problem solving for our clients, from the most senior to the most junior.

Our seniors are former senior consultants at leading management consulting firms and/or senior executives at large corporations. We believe clients would benefit the most from a combination of consultants with substantive experience in consulting coupled with line management professionals.  In addition to our team in the Greater China offices of Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai, we have a global network of collaboration partners with a wide range of experience, capabilities and resources.

Connect with us on www.gaofengadv.com 
For Further Queries: 
Bill Russo | Managing Director – Shanghai, China | Email: bill.russo@gaofengadv.com