Shanghai, China, July 27, 2017
Bill Russo spoke on “Rising Opportunities in China’s Automotive Independent Aftermarket” at the Automotive Aftermarket Forum organized by Messe Frankfurt in Shanghai
Bloomberg News, April 18, 2017
Most auto executives have reasons to feel at ease after hitting the one-million annual sales mark in China, an exclusive club that includes General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG. For Great Wall Motor Co.’s Wei Jianjun, the feat stoked fears that the SUV maker may be doomed.
That’s because history is littered with companies that grew big but eventually failed because their products became a commodity and lacked the star power to create clamor among customers, according to the chairman of the manufacturer that has kept a 14-year streak as China’s top SUV seller.
“Moving up is testimony of a company’s strength; if you can’t, you’ll disappear the way Nokia did after Apple muscled in on their turf,” Wei said during a recent interview in Hong Kong, as he recalled how the iPhone maker upended the mobile-phone industry and eventually toppled the erstwhile Finnish leader.
Wei’s paranoia signals the maturing of the world’s largest auto market, where an increasingly sophisticated middle class is no longer satisfied with cheap, me-too products. China’s more successful homegrown automakers, also including Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. — the owner of Volvo Cars — and BYD Co., have embarked on efforts to burnish their nameplates in the belief that with more than 100 brands competing for buyers, the fight will be won by those who look beyond price competition to create income streams from products with higher profit margins.
For Great Wall’s Wei, it turns out, the effort also involves adopting the English name “Jack Wey” and creating the premium nameplate “WEY.” Sales of the brand’s first model that has features such as a warning system for lane changes are set to begin at the Shanghai auto show this week, and another three models will be added this year, Wei said.
Wei, a native of Baoding born in 1964, has built Great Wall into China’s top seller of SUVs without leaning on any foreign partners, and by offering consumers spacious models at cheaper prices than sedans such as Volkswagen’s Passat and GM’s Buick. That strategy helped boost deliveries to a record 1.07 million units last year, outpacing industrywide growth.
At 26 — and after several factory jobs — Wei took over a small car-modification business and turned it into a van maker. He later shifted focus to pickup trucks after witnessing their popularity in Thailand. Small business owners and farmers turned Great Wall’s Deer into China’s most popular pickup brand by 1998. And in 2002, he rolled out the first Haval SUV model. The popular Haval H6 accounted for more than half of the company’s deliveries last year.
The idea for going upscale came just over four years ago when branding guru Al Ries, chairman of the Atlanta-based market-strategy firm Ries & Ries that counts Microsoft Corp. and Ford Motor Co. among its clients, advised Wei to create a separate brand. “Jack Wey” would help foreigners get around the difficulty of pronouncing Wei’s name in Chinese, Wei was told.
“A new idea requires a new brand name. To keep a company competitive in the future requires a constant launch of new concepts,” said Ries. “The future belongs to multiple brand companies, not single-brand companies.”
As Chinese consumers shift their tastes away from sedans, demand for roomier SUVs is surging, with such vehicles accounting for 37 percent of the total sales last year, up from 5.7 percent a decade ago. Still, the introduction of WEY comes at a time when new models are flooding the market. PSA Group to Hyundai Motor Co. are boosting their lineup in the segment. Geely, owned by billionaire Li Shufu, will start selling the first SUV model under its new upscale Lynk & Co. from the fourth quarter, using the same platform adopted by affiliate Volvo Cars.
“We added WEY brand to prepare for the SUV market to enter the price competition era,” said Wei, who has a net worth of $5.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. “Sales of WEY brand cars will bring us higher profit margins and with the rising sales volume, it will make bigger contribution to Great Wall’s bottom line.”
Shares of Great Wall fell 2.2 percent to HK$8.91 as of 3:19 p.m. in Hong Kong. The benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.1 percent.
WEY carries features usually found in more-expensive foreign models, such as a cruise control that maintains a safe distance from the car ahead. The marque targets buyers who patronize brands such as Kate Spade, Calvin Klein and DKNY, according to Wei.
Wei estimates the new brand will have a gross profit margin of about 27 percent. Great Wall is more profitable than some of its peers including General Motors and Volkswagen.
“Even successful mass-market players like Hyundai have struggled to add brands above their mainstream brand,” said Bill Russo, managing director of Gao Feng Advisory Co. and a former head of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s Chrysler unit in China. “In the age of hardware commoditization, he will need a key feature to attract upscale consumers or a unique selling proposition. The odds are against him, but he’s beaten the odds so far.”
Great Wall is targeting to sell 56,000 units of WEY brand vehicles this year, competing with Toyota Motor Corp.’s RAV-4, Honda Motor Co.’s CRV and Volkswagen’s Tiguan SUVs. The first model will be priced in the 150,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan ($22,000 to $29,000) range, according to Wei. That would put the vehicle in the same bracket as Great Wall’s H8 and H9 models.
Wei, who rues the fact that his company didn’t change its strategy quickly enough to focus only on SUVs, isn’t satisfied with being leader in the segment just at home. Great Wall is in the process of selecting a site in the U.S. to assemble Haval vehicles after reviewing an earlier plan for Mexico. Wei wants Haval to surpass Jeep and Land Rover becoming the world’s biggest SUV brand by 2020 and Haval H6 to become the global No. 1 by then.
“By counting on a strong domestic market, we will develop our global business and build our brands into global ones,” Wei said. “It’s a huge challenge and a golden opportunity as well.”
— With assistance by Tian Ying
Bloomberg News, March 10, 2017
China’s biggest SUV maker is reconsidering its plan to build an auto plant in Mexico that would have made its best-selling vehicles for the U.S. market, joining a growing list of global automakers reviewing investment plans after tax threats by President Donald Trump.
Great Wall Motor Co., led by billionaire Chairman Wei Jianjun, may choose the U.S. instead for its first North American plant, General Manager Wang Fengying said in an interview. The company has a research center in Los Angeles and will accelerate preparations to develop U.S.-certified versions of its Haval SUVs for sale by 2020, Wang said.
“Your decisions should always adapt to the dynamic changes,” said Wang, a delegate at this week’s National People’s Congress in Beijing. There used to be many carmakers building plants in Mexico but Trump’s changes have affected their decision making, Wang said.
Trump has promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and criticized auto companies including General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. for shifting production south of the border. Under threats of punitive import duties, Ford Motor Co. and Japanese auto-parts maker Nisshinbo Holdings Inc. said they’ll scrap or reconsider new plants in Mexico.
Great Wall, based in Baoding, Hebei province, is one of several Chinese automakers hoping to break into the U.S. with their own brands. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. plans to start exporting its Trumpchi models to the U.S. from next year, while Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co. and Volvo Cars owner Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. have also declared American ambitions.
“Building in the U.S. is a hedge against a potential future trade barrier with Mexico,” said Bill Russo, managing director of Gao Feng Advisory Co. and a former head of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s Chrysler unit in China. “It would add cost to producing the vehicles but it reduces the potential tax risk.”
For more than 20 years, China has asked foreign carmakers wanting to set up manufacturing plants in its country to do so through joint ventures with domestic auto companies, a move that allowed many Chinese manufacturers to gain technology and eventually set up their own brands. Local marques like Geely, Trumpchi and Haval now account for almost half the Chinese market.
The Chinese carmakers are trying to reverse the tide and sell their own models to Europe and the U.S., just as the Republican-led House of Representatives is considering implementing a border-adjustment tax on companies’ imports but not their exports.
The proposals by Trump and lawmakers would raise the average cost of a car in the U.S. by about $3,300 and could even cost American jobs because carmakers source parts from around the world, Munich-based consultant Roland Berger GmbH. said in a presentation on March 8. The price increases would lead to about $34.6 billion in higher costs to consumers, assuming U.S. sales at the 17.5 million level recorded in 2016, the Center for Automotive Research said in a report Thursday.
In China, Great Wall is enjoying a sales surge as Chinese drivers embrace SUVs, despite government efforts to curb fuel consumption and emissions. The company’s domestic sales rose 26 percent last year to 1.1 million units, putting it ahead of Japan’s Mitsubishi Motors Corp. in global vehicle production. Abroad, though, it’s had less success, selling only 17,379 units last year, mainly in countries such as Russia, South Africa, Bulgaria and Australia.
The company is exploring opportunities in developed markets and wants to make the Haval brand global by 2020, said Wang. The company markets its SUVs in China as offering good value for money and prints ads with the title “See. Drive. Believe.” While overseas it also uses pictures of its vehicles driving in the off-road Dakar rally competition.
More than four out of every five vehicles Great Wall sells is an SUV and the company is under pressure at home as China tries to clean up the choking air in its biggest cities. The government has proposed rules that would require automakers to improve fuel economy and produce a higher proportion of so-called new-energy vehicles such as battery-powered cars. Wang said Great Wall plans to invest at least 60 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) in developing new-energy vehicles by 2025, without giving details on how the investment would be funded.
By JOE McDONALD AP Business Writer
In this photo, taken, Feb. 19, 2017, a worker assembles a Haval SUV H3 model at the Great Wall Motors assembly plant in Baoding in north China’s Hebei province. Great Wall Motors became China’s most profitable automaker by making almost nothing but low-priced SUVs. Now it wants to expand into global markets. (Photo by ANDY WONG/AP)
BAODING, China (AP) — Wei Jianjun is the chief matchmaker in China’s love affair with the SUV.
A decade ago, the chairman of Great Wall Motors Ltd. saw opportunity as the bulky vehicles began shedding their image in China as a farm tool. Wei cut back on making sedans and poured resources into its fledgling line of Havals.
That gamble paid off as SUVs caught on with drivers who saw them as the safest ride on bumpy, chaotic streets. By 2013, with demand surging, Great Wall had become China’s most profitable automaker and Wei was a billionaire.
Now, Wei wants to make the Haval a global brand. It’s an ambitious goal that requires advances in safety and features for a company known until now mainly for low prices. Great Wall sells Havals in Australia, Italy and Russia, but exports were less than 5 percent of last year’s output of just under 1.1 million units.
“By 2020, we hope Haval can become the world’s biggest specialty SUV brand,” Wei said at a reception at Great Wall headquarters in this city southwest of Beijing to celebrate sales passing the 1 million mark.
That “globalization strategy” includes working toward meeting American safety standards, Wei said. But he gave no indication when Haval might export to the United States or major European markets such as Germany.
Great Wall is part of a cadre of small but ambitious independent Chinese automakers that grew in the shadow of state-owned giants such as Shanghai Automotive Industries Corp., which assembles vehicles for General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG.
Without foreign joint-venture partners, the independents created their own brands and started exporting to Africa and Latin America.
Geely Holding Ltd., which owns Sweden’s Volvo Cars, plans to start U.S. and European sales of its new Lynk & Co. brand in 2019. BYD Auto, the world’s biggest-selling electric car maker, supplies battery-powered buses and taxis in the United States and Europe. Great Wall opened a European assembly plant in Bulgaria in 2012. It has similar facilities with local partners in Russia, Indonesia, Iran, Egypt and Ecuador.
SUVs have an outsized role in China, where their popularity has helped offset sagging demand for sedans and other vehicles.
Sales of domestic brand SUVs soared 58 percent last year to 5.3 million units out of total sales of 24.4 million in the world’s biggest auto market. They are growing fastest in the lowest price ranges, dominated by Haval and Chinese rivals. That has helped Chinese brands to claw back market share they were losing to global competitors.
The top seller was Haval’s flagship H6, starting at 89,000 yuan ($12,900), which has become China’s most popular vehicle to date. H6 sales surged 55 percent last year to 580,000 units while the overall market grew 15 percent.
“They are definitely one of the most successful car companies in China,” said Yale Zhang, managing director of Automotive Foresight, a research firm.
“This company has some very special strengths,” Zhang said. “Of course, it also has weaknesses, because their products are focused on one model. But they are correcting that. They have tried very hard to cultivate another star product.”
Great Wall’s 2016 profit rose 31 percent to 10.5 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) on revenue of 98.6 billion yuan ($14.4 billion). Wei, 52, ranked No. 36 on the year’s Hurun List of China’s richest entrepreneurs, with a fortune estimated at $5.9 billion.
Begun in the 1980s as a collective that repaired and modified vehicles, Great Wall was bleeding cash when Wei, then 26, left his father’s business making industrial machinery and signed a deal in 1990 to take it over and share profits with the collective’s members.
The company launched a sedan in 1993. Its popular Deer brand pickup trucks were its first hit, in the late ’90s.
Its CEO, Wang Fengying, is a former saleswoman who worked her way up the ranks, becoming the first woman to lead an automaker a decade before GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra.
Wei has a reputation for military-style discipline.
“He wants a quick decision and a thorough execution,” Zhang said. “This style is very different from large automotive companies, which can be a huge bureaucracy. This company definitely doesn’t have that weakness.”
Most of Great Wall’s 60,000 employees work at its Baoding factory complex, a 13-square-kilometer (5-square-mile) mini-city of assembly lines and workshops in long, pale yellow two- and three-story buildings.
A test track that wraps around the complex is banked to allow drivers to push vehicles to over 200 kph (125 mph).
“It’s an orderly, organized, very disciplined operation,” said Bill Russo, managing director of research firm Gao Feng Advisory. “You think, this isn’t China; this is what I would expect to see in Switzerland or Germany.”
Wei has emphasized product quality, in one case hiring Korean auto industry veterans to show Great Wall how to make better body panels, according to Russo, a former Chrysler executive. That has paid off by raising Haval’s image from entry-level to a mass-market brand that can charge higher prices.
“They have cracked that glass ceiling,” said Russo. “Their quality level is better than the basic Chinese car companies.”
Still, Great Wall’s market is increasingly crowded as Chinese rivals roll out dozens of new SUVs. Global brands including VW and GM are preparing to invade Haval’s segment with their own low-cost models.
Competitive pressures have reached a “deep red level,” Wei said.
The company is responding by trying to move up-market.
Haval opened a Shanghai design studio in 2013 and a Technology Center in Baoding, housed in a sleek glass tower with reflecting pools and a 23-story lobby. It includes engineering workshops, a wind tunnel and a low-pressure chamber that can mimic operating conditions up to 5,000 meters (16,500 feet) in altitude.
In November, Great Wall unveiled a premium brand, Wey, an alternate spelling of Wei’s name. It has yet to say how it will attract buyers to models expected to be priced above 200,000 yuan ($29,000).
Haval has struggled to lure drivers to its higher-priced models, such as its top-of-the-line H9, a seven-seater starting at 210,000 yuan ($30,600), that sold just 11,500 units last year. The H8, another full-size model, sold only 7,500 units.
In November, the company rolled out an updated H6, designed by a 50-member team led by Pierre Leclercq, a Belgian-born BMW veteran.
“The H6 is an extremely important product for us,” said Leclercq, the company’s senior vice president for design.
The company’s next rising star is the H2, a four-seat compact SUV that sold 197,000 units last year. But it starts at 87,000 yuan ($12,700), a step down in price instead of toward a higher market segment.
Great Wall also faces pressure from Chinese government rules that require improved fuel efficiency by 2020. That will hurt brands such as Haval that lack smaller models to improve the average of their product lineup.
In response, Great Wall has developed an electric car, the C30 EV, a compact sedan it says can go 200 kilometers (120 miles) on one charge. The company has yet to say when it might go on sale.
The New York Times, January 16, 2017
A BMW at the New York International Auto Show in 2016. After praising German manufacturing prowess in an interview with Bild, President-elect Donald J. Trump threatened to impose a 35 percent tariff on every car that BMW imported to the United States.
BEIJING — In his latest criticism of what he sees as unfair trade, Donald J. Trump has taken aim at German cars. Why, the president-elect asked a German newspaper, do so many well-heeled drivers in New York drive a Mercedes-Benz, while Germans buy so few Chevrolets?
Mr. Trump’s question could set the stage for action by his incoming administration against the likes of Mercedes-Benz and BMW, which he criticized for its plans to build a new plant in Mexico. But the president-elect’s musing shows an incomplete understanding of how globalized the auto industry has become since Ronald Reagan went after Toyota and Honda in the 1980s.
That Mercedes-Benz in New York, for example, may have been made in Tuscaloosa, Ala., depending on the model. BMW has a plant in South Carolina that exports 70 percent of the vehicles made there, it says. And Germans might not buy many Chevrolets, which are no longer sold in Germany, but they buy plenty of Opels, which, like Chevy, is owned by General Motors.
Mr. Trump has criticized other companies and industries for moving production out of the United States at the expense of American jobs, such as appliance makers and pharmaceutical companies. But the vehicle industry in general — and particularly foreign automakers, his new target — illustrate how difficult it can be to parse American from international when criticizing global trade.
BMW and Mercedes-Benz — as well as the Japanese carmakers Honda, Nissan and Toyota — employ thousands of factory workers in Alabama, South Carolina, Texas and other states. G.M. gets more than a quarter of its auto-related sales outside North America, while Ford gets a third. Chrysler was bought by Fiat of Italy. Cars of all types increasingly have Chinese parts.
Nevertheless, Mr. Trump has been making a series of ever-broader demands that the auto industry manufacture in the United States to sell in the United States.
The president-elect’s latest comments came on Sunday in excerpts from an interview with the German tabloid newspaper Bild. After praising German manufacturing prowess, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 35 percent tariff — he called it a “tax” — on every car that BMW imported to the United States. BMW should build the factory in the United States, Mr. Trump said, where it would benefit from his plans to slash corporate taxes.
Car exports are the lifeblood of the German economy, and the United States is one of the most important markets. New trade barriers would be a serious threat to German growth and could sour relations with one of the United States’ most important allies.
“We take his comments seriously,” Matthias Wissmann, president of the German Association of the Auto Industry, said in a statement. “Restrictions in the Nafta zone would put a real damper on the economy.”
In a post on Twitter on Sunday, Mr. Trump laid out his expectations for the auto industry: “Car companies and others, if they want to do business in our country, have to start making things here again. WIN!”
The main question lies in what Mr. Trump and his trade advisers decide to do once in office, auto industry officials and trade experts said. Measures to force manufacturers to shift assembly to United States factories and to use more American-made parts could drive up prices for American car buyers and make American vehicles less competitive in world markets.
“The people who lose are the core Trump supporters, who end up buying more expensive products,” said Bill Russo, a former chief executive of Chrysler China who is now the managing director for the automotive industry at Gao Feng Advisory Company, a Chinese consulting firm.
The German carmakers are hoping that, once Mr. Trump takes office, they will be able to convince him that tariffs on vehicle imports would hurt the American economy and get him to modify his views.
“We should seek a dialogue with Trump,” Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute, a research organization in Munich, said in an email. But Mr. Fuest also expressed concern that differences over trade could escalate.
“There is a danger that his policy fails and that he subsequently starts looking for scapegoats,” Mr. Fuest said. “One such scapegoat could be the German economy.”
In some respects, Mr. Trump has a point. The United States has been more open to imports than other large automotive markets, with the result that cars shipped in from abroad represent a considerably larger share of the American market than of markets elsewhere.
European governments have effectively limited imports by putting pressure on vehicle manufacturers not to close high-cost factories or to lay off workers. The Chinese government requires foreign automakers to partner with local manufacturers and sometimes requires them to transfer technology to Chinese companies.
Still, tailoring measures against the auto industry to create jobs in the United States could be difficult. For example, BMW’s Mexico plant would produce 3 Series sedans, which are currently made only in Germany and China. Most likely, the plant in Mexico would take jobs from the factories in Germany and China and create demand for components imported from the United States.
BMW is “very much at home in the U.S.A.,” Glenn Schmidt, a BMW spokesman, said in an email. Mercedes-Benz declined to comment.
The BMW factory site in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, is already swarming with construction workers rushing to make a 2019 deadline to begin production. There is little chance BMW will change its plans and move the assembly lines to the United States.
Mr. Trump’s comments hark back to the 1980s, when the Reagan administration criticized Japan for what it called unfair trade policies in the auto business. That compelled the Japanese government to set annual limits on the number of cars shipped to the United States.
Although President George Bush allowed Japan to drop the limits soon after taking office in 1989, the fights of the 1980s taught the global industry a valuable lesson: Made in America can be a good thing. Japanese and European automakers built assembly plants in the United States, taking the edge off political battles while creating tens of thousands of jobs in the country. Building plants in the United States helped in other areas as well, such as improving the foreign automakers’ logistics and moderating the impact from turbulence in currency markets.
BMW’s largest factory anywhere in the world is in Spartanburg, S.C. It employs nearly 9,000 people and exports 70 percent of the vehicles it makes, BMW says. Daimler makes Mercedes-Benz S.U.V.s and C-Class cars in Tuscaloosa, Ala., and it is building a new factory in Charleston, S.C., to manufacture Sprinter vans, creating more than 1,000 jobs.
Daimler, which also builds Freightliner trucks in the United States, has 22 factories or research and development centers in the United States that employ 22,000 people.
Even Volkswagen has not given up on the United States despite an emissions scandal that has led to $20 billion in civil settlements and criminal penalties. The carmaker, which has long produced cars in Mexico, is expanding a factory in Chattanooga, Tenn., to manufacture a new full-size S.U.V.
G.M. and Ford, meanwhile, saw big opportunities in places like China, where rapid economic development meant more people could afford cars.
A tough stance on autos from Mr. Trump may not have the same impact as that of President Reagan. Since the 1980s, automakers have made fewer of their own parts, buying them instead from hundreds of parts suppliers based all over the globe. That means an American car assembled in the United States could still have large chunks that are manufactured abroad.
Chinese manufacturers dominate the market for replacement parts in the United States, often undercutting prices for parts from the automakers by half or more. Tariffs on Chinese parts would end up being paid by Americans who took their cars in for repairs.
“U.S. consumers are paying a good price for their aftermarket parts,” because of Chinese providers, said Yale Zhang, the managing director of Automotive Foresight, a Shanghai-based consulting firm.
Global automakers’ assembly plants have been rapidly shifting orders from parts factories in the Midwest to plants in China in the last few years. But that trend could stop or reverse if Mr. Trump imposes sizable tariffs on those imports, Mr. Zhang said.
For any move Mr. Trump makes, the devil is in the details. Options include tariffs on imported cars and possibly car parts. He could also prompt a rewrite of the American tax code so that imports — but not exports — are taxed, a move known as border adjustment.
The architect of the Reagan administration’s restrictions on Japanese car imports and of a Reagan-era law that temporarily reduced taxes on exporters was Robert E. Lighthizer. Mr. Lighthizer was deputy United States trade representative at the time. He is now Mr. Trump’s choice to become the United States’ top trade negotiator.
The Financial Times, May 31, 2016
As China revs up its shift to a consumption-led growth model, policymakers are trying to get more mileage out of a sputtering part of the economy: the used car market.
In most developed economies, sales of second-hand cars outnumber those of new vehicles by about two to one but the opposite is true in China, the world’s largest market for new vehicles.
“The majority of the vehicles in China are still owned by the first owner; secondary-owned vehicles are the minority,” says Bill Russo, a Shanghai-based consultant. “That is unlike any other country.”
To help stimulate the nascent market, Beijing recently introduced a policy that allows old cars from big cities to be resold in smaller ones, a move that will take full effect at the end of May. Previously, to protect local businesses, government regulations prevented cars being sold across provincial borders.
This will “open the pipeline”, according to Mr Russo. “Cars [in China] may be born in upper-tier regions but they tend to retire in lower-tier regions,” he said.
Though huge, China’s car market is in its infancy. Until 1984 it remained technically illegal for individuals to own a car and low personal wealth meant sales did not take off until the mid-2000s.
The country’s transition into a “new normal” of annual economic growth below 7 per cent following years of double-digit rises is potentially painful for carmakers accustomed to breakneck demand for new models. For used-car sales, however, newly thrifty consumers and a growing number of ageing vehicles are a promising combination.
Rising supply, combined with government support and moves by manufacturers to encourage car-owners to upgrade sooner, promises to see the second-hand market grow at more than double the speed of that for new cars, according to Alex Klose, founder of JZWcars.com, a used car website.
The entrepreneur, Volvo’s former chief executive for China, set up his company in 2014 with the aim of becoming a trusted platform for a nascent market. “One thing holding people back from buying a used car is not knowing whether they can trust it,” he says.
Mr Klose is not alone in seeing the potential for second-hand cars. A flock of online platforms and technology start-ups have recently entered the sector.
“Everyone thinks that the space for growth in second-hand cars is very big — they think the sector is a very big cake,” says Li He, founder of Limiku.com, a used-car financing platform.
The government sees the used-car market as a way to boost consumption among those with lower incomes.
Mr Li, a tech industry veteran, believes online platforms are helping to improve the supply chain — a job he says big distributors are failing to do.
“The vast majority [of major distributors] have a second-hand car department but in reality they don’t have standards for the whole supply chain, including pricing and evaluation,” he says.
Big carmakers are now encouraging their dealerships to stop dragging their feet, however, as they seek a new source or profit for dealers.
Over-dependence on a single stream of revenue has sparked tensions between manufacturers and dealers in the past, when distributors asked for compensation for their losses during slow sales periods.
As dealerships look to evolve their business models, there is one set of people who are watching with trepidation: the original used-car salesmen.
Dong Wei has been selling used cars from his shoebox office at Beijing’s oldest and largest “old car market” since the 1990s.
“Before they [big dealerships] didn’t bother with second-hand cars, because the profits for new cars were so high,” he says. “Now they are starting to change their model.”
Mr Dong is nervous that disruption in the sector means the glory days for small-time salesmen are over.
“Before, the market would be full of people,” he says waving a hand at the unattended rows of shiny cars roasting in the heat. “These days, people prefer to go online.”
China Central Television China 24 Program,, April 25, 2016
A link to Bill Russo’s appearance on CCTV’s China 24 program. Topics discussed included New Energy Vehicles, China’s auto market outlook, and vehicle exports. Beijing Auto Show story begins at 8:25, and Mr. Russo’s appearance starts at 11:42.
AFP Newswires, April 25, 2016
Maserati Levante sport-utility vehicles are offloaded in Hangzhou, eastern China’s Zhejiang province ©- (AFP/File)
Chinese drivers are rushing to buy sport-utility vehicles in an “arms race” for safety on the country’s hair-raising roads, analysts say, as SUV sales hit the gas despite a slowing economy.
SUV purchases in the world’s number one car market surged more than 50 percent in the first quarter of 2016 from a year earlier, while sedan sales fell 9.3 percent, according to industry data.
“The primary reason is a fairly primitive one,” says Robin Zhu, auto analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in Hong Kong. “It’s about survival.
“It’s about people’s desire to feel safe on the roads. Because [SUVs] are bigger, and in low-speed collisions, from a consumer psychology point of view, you’d rather be the one in the SUV.”
Another 50 models new to the Chinese market will go into production in the country this year, according to consultancy IHS Automotive, many of them to be showcased at the Beijing Auto Show opening Monday.
China’s roads have a reputation for danger, with footage of horrific traffic accidents from the country’s ubiquitous surveillance cameras broadcast daily on television.
The World Health Organization estimates that more than a quarter of a million people are killed on the country’s roads every year — over four times official government statistics.
Death rates remain comparatively high because of inadequate rescue systems and poor treatment, according to a study by Chinese researchers published last year in medical journal The Lancet.
A businessman in an SUV in Beijing, who asked not to be named, told AFP he chose it “because it makes me feel safe when I drive”.
Bill Russo, automotive chief of advisory Gao Feng in Shanghai, said the appeal of an SUV comes from a feeling of “command” and the perception “you can deal with anything the road throws at you”.
Rising road rage on China’s congested streets has also made SUVs more popular, said Zhu. Traffic police handled more than 17 million cases of driver aggression last year, according to public security ministry statistics.
“There’s a bit of an arms race going on,” he explained.
– ‘Sedans on stilts’ –
Analysts say that while consumers in the US and other countries may be drawn by the image of SUVs going off-road in rough conditions, in China most of them are based on ordinary cars.
“The so-called SUVs today are sedans on stilts,” said Zhu.
More Chinese buyers have turned to SUVs as their fuel economy has improved and a drop in oil prices have made the vehicles more affordable to run.
The most popular models are “small, car-based crossover types”, said Russo, noting that “the vast majority” have engines smaller than 2.0 litres.
“They’re economical SUVs, they’re not big, gas-consuming environmentally unfriendly vehicles,” he said.
Chinese buyers are content with small engines in large bodies, said Michael Dunne, CEO and strategist at Dunne Automotive in Hong Kong.
Ten years ago educated urbanites preferred sedans because larger vehicles were associated with rural people and construction workers, he said. But in the last two years, SUVs have become “fashionable”.
“They’re not that interested in acceleration, passing, speed. They’re more interested in the look,” said Dunne.
But the boom may not last, executives warn. “Even if now the SUV is popular, in the future there will probably be a change,” said Toyota China head Hiroji Onishi, suggesting that minivans could see their appeal widen.
At the same time, while higher margins in the SUV segment have made the vehicles a driver of profits for foreign automakers, increasingly popular cheaper local models have made significant inroads in claiming market share.
Chinese companies such as Great Wall, Changan and Wuling have become national brands, Russo said, and in March six of the 10 top-selling SUVs were from Chinese firms.
According to association data, Chinese carmakers accounted for 60 percent of SUV sales in the first two months of the year, compared to only 20 percent of sedans.
The best-selling SUV in China, the Haval H6, costs from 88,000 yuan ($13,600) according to the company’s website. The best-selling foreign-brand SUV, the Volkswagen Tiguan, go for 200,000 yuan and up on major car sales portal Autohome.
The Financial Times, April 24, 2016
Carmakers are gearing up for a year of intense competition in China as the world’s largest auto market by sales faces both slowing growth and changing tastes in the form of electric cars and sports utility vehicles.
This time last year, global executives were bracing for a potential slowdown and a “new normal” of moderate sales growth to match a slowing mainland economy.
Fears became reality when the stock market rout last summer in China sent consumer sentiment into a nosedive. Sales dropped year on year from June to August, before a tax cut for small-engine vehicles in October propped up sales to finish 2015 with a growth rate of 4.7 per cent year-on-year.
After a bumpy run, global carmakers at the biennial Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, which opens on Monday, are keen to prove they are well positioned in China’s rapidly maturing market.
Shifting consumption patterns have made SUVs one of the country’s most promising growth segments, with sales surging by more than 50 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the same period last year, in contrast to sedan sales which declined 1 per cent.
That mirrors the growing popularity of gas-guzzling SUVs elsewhere in the world as fuel costs have followed the price of oil lower.
The shift has helped established a beachhead for local automakers, according to Bill Russo, a Shanghai-based consultant.
“For sedans, multinationals had the advantage but for utility vehicles seven out of the top 10 models are Chinese brands” thanks to their lower costs, he says. The trend is here to stay, he adds: “Utility is like a drug — once you have it, you’re hooked”.
The move has put pressure on foreign brands as local carmakers have also improved their quality significantly in recent years, according to analysts.
“Multinationals are in a dilemma over whether to cut costs to compete,” says Yale Zhang, a Shanghai-based consultant.
Domestic automakers are looking to expand on their newly privileged position. IHS Automotive predicts production of 50 new SUV models to be launched in China this year and says that 78 per cent of these will be domestic brands.
Global automakers are already revving up efforts to regain ground by bringing their most successful top-end models from home. Ford, for instance, will use the Beijing Expo to launch its F-150 Raptor in China, a popular pick-up truck in the US, as part of efforts to “inspire a generation of off-road enthusiasts,” says John Lawler, chief executive of Ford Motor China.
But bigger is not the only way carmakers hope to do better in the Chinese market: electric cars also remain a priority for any auto brand looking to get ahead.
While they are still only a small segment of the overall market, greater numbers of “new energy vehicles” are a strategic goal for Beijing even if the demand is not yet there.
The government is aiming for yearly sales to top 3m units by 2025, after growth of nearly 300 per cent in 2015 to 330,000.
Li Keqiang, China’s premier, said in February that the government would step up support for the electric vehicle industry by shifting funds away from subsidies for production to rewarding companies that come up with new technologies and hit sales targets.
“Everyone is under pressure to show their latest NEV [new energy vehicle] models” at the Beijing Expo, says Janet Lewis of Macquarie. But margins will remain low for electric vehicles for a few years to come, she adds. “Right now, selling NEVs is not a profitable proposition.”
A survey from McKinsey suggests that electric vehicles are gaining traction, helped by government policies that make it easier to get a licence plate for electric vehicles in China’s largest cities.
As in the SUV segment, foreign leaders still face local competition. LeEco, a Chinese tech company, became the latest to enter the space, last week announcing a new all-electric concept car christened LeSEE.
“These [technology] companies are almost on par with Silicon Valley,” says Clemens Wasner at EFS, a consultancy. “In a western country their entry into the market would not be economically viable, but in China it might be.”
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The New York Times, March 28, 2016
by Keith Bradsher
Hundreds of robots bend, arch and twist to assemble the body of Cadillac’s new flagship CT6. Lasers seal the car’s lightweight aluminum exterior using techniques that the carmaker, General Motors, has only just introduced in the United States. Yardlong, bright yellow robots like mechanical Alaskan huskies tow five-foot-tall carts of auto parts to the assembly line.
“It’s more along the lines of aircraft technology than traditional, spot-welded steel bodies,” said Paul Buetow, G.M.’s head of manufacturing in China, as he strode along the assembly line.
The factory is part of an aggressive expansion by automakers in China, the world’s largest market for new cars and the industry’s brightest hope for the last 15 years. But the country’s economy is now cooling, which could leave carmakers with too many factories and not enough buyers.
G.M. will open a second, $1 billion factory in Wuhan next year. G.M.’s main rival in the Chinese market, Volkswagen, plans to open large assembly plants next year alongside its existing factories in the cities of Foshan, Ningbo and Yizheng and build one in Qingdao by 2018. Hyundai plans to complete a factory south of Beijing by October and another in Chongqing next year, while Chinese automakers like Great Wall and Changan are aggressively adding capacity.
The research firm Sanford Bernstein estimates that auto manufacturing capacity in China will rise 22 percent over the next two years, bringing it to 28.8 million cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles annually. That is almost equal to the American and European markets combined, and greater than even the most optimistic forecasts: that sales in China will reach about 25 million next year.
Automakers are expanding at a time when China’s economic growth has slowed to its lowest level in more than a quarter-century. China is closing coal mines across the country and plans to shutter steel mills. Exports are falling. Many Chinese cities are dotted with empty apartment buildings. Worried about pollution and traffic jams, China’s wealthiest metropolises have begun limiting the number of new cars that may be registered.
On the surface, auto sales in China seem strong. More Chinese families can afford cars and are flocking to showrooms. Sales of cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles jumped 8 percent last year from 2014.
The buyers are not just China’s college-educated, white-collar elite, but also the beneficiaries of the country’s roughly eightfold growth in blue-collar wages in the last dozen years. Zhou Genkou, a burly truck driver, recently waited in a Volkswagen dealership to pay $12,300 for a new white Santana sedan. He explained that he could not tolerate life without a car.
“It’s so that we don’t have to walk,” he said.
But there are signs that China’s yearslong auto boom is easing.
After car sales fell three months in a row, the Chinese government decided last September to halve the sales tax on cars with engines of 1.6 liters or less, to 5 percent through the end of 2016. The main beneficiaries have been domestic Chinese automakers, mostly affiliated with municipal or provincial governments, that churn out cheap subcompacts with small engines.
A similar tax reduction produced strong sales in 2009 and 2010. But it mainly encouraged consumers to buy sooner. When the tax cut expired, sales essentially leveled off for the next two years.
With the current tax reduction scheduled to end, “2017 will be a very difficult year for the auto industry, probably no growth,” said Yale Zhang, the managing director of Automotive Foresight, a Shanghai consulting firm.
Multinationals are focusing more on higher-profit segments that are growing without help from such incentives. But they are also finishing up a factory-building spree that started three years ago, when the economy was healthier.
“We see China moving to a pace of what I would call moderate growth,” said Matthew Tsien, the G.M. executive vice president who oversees the company’s China business.
Volkswagen forecasts that China’s auto market will grow slightly faster than the overall economy this year and slightly slower than the overall economy for the rest of the decade. G.M. is forecasting that the market will grow a little less than 5 percent a year through the end of the decade, the equivalent of adding the entire auto market of Japan, or five Australias.
Both automakers are planning to meet much of that growth with factories they have already commissioned or will soon finish. But if the economy weakens significantly, the industry could get stuck with a large amount of excess capacity.
“Are manufacturers going to keep the rose-colored glasses or get real? Most of the multinationals are going to get real and slow down the new capacity,” said Bill Russo, former chief executive of Chrysler China and now a consultant. “I’m not sure about the local manufacturers. They have a ‘Field of Dreams’ and ‘build it and they will come’ mentality.”
Chinese auto industry leaders shrug off such concerns. “They see the small-car market as having a lot of potential,” said Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association.
The Chinese economy needs continued strength in the auto market. The government wants to shift to a new, more sustainable model for growth based on consumer spending.
Since 2009, China has depended heavily on a loan-fed surge in construction of ever more highways, rail lines, factories and other investments. But that has produced a mountain of debt, particularly at state-owned enterprises.
Strong auto sales helped China attain a little-noticed milestone in recent months. Overall retail sales of consumer goods in China surpassed such sales in the United States, according to official data.
If sales do slow sharply, the question is whether multinationals and domestic automakers will try to start exporting more from their Chinese factories. The facilities are among the most advanced in the world, not least because they are also the newest.
G.M. and other automakers could in theory try to export more cars to the United States, which is also a relatively healthy market. One potential obstacle, however, is that China’s surplus capacity is mainly in subcompact cars, for which Americans have little appetite.
G.M. is already preparing to start shipping a new car-based sport utility vehicle, the Buick Envision, from China to the United States, from a factory in northeastern China. The arrival of the Envision, which is being built only in China, Buick’s biggest market by far, will be the mass market debut of Chinese-built cars in Big Three showrooms in the United States.
The preferences of Chinese consumers tend to be different from those of American buyers. Chinese customers, for example, are highly prone to complain if fabrics and other materials in a car’s interior do not smell quite right, according to surveys by J. D. Power & Associates. Many in the auto industry have said they will be watching how American buyers respond to Chinese-built Envisions.
“So will we,” said Mr. Buetow of G.M.