Driving Large Scale Electrification of China’s Automotive Industry

Gao Feng Insights, May 2017

China’s automotive industry is entering a period where discontinuities and disruptions are likely to reshape the competitive landscape – and this represents an opportune time to guide the development in alignment with China’s overall industrial development goals.  With the issuance in April 2017 of the Automotive Industry Mid to Long Term Development Plan, the Ministry for Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) provides “guiding principles” for the development of China’s auto industry for the next decade.

Leveraging new energy and connected vehicle technology as entry points for accelerating auto industry development and transformation, the policy’s objective is to transform China from the largest auto market to a global leading automotive production base.  Specifically, the guideline sets a goal for Chinese new energy vehicle[1] (NEV) companies to be among the Top 10 NEV companies worldwide by 2020, and to further expand their global impact and market share by 2025.  A target has been set for the domestic NEV sales to reach 2 million units by 2020, and 7 million units by 2025 (20% of total vehicle sales).

Chinese automakers have struggled to reach a global leadership position in the automotive industry due to their relatively short history and lack of technical experience in advanced automotive technologies centered on the internal combustion engine.  The NEV market opens a window for China to potentially level the playing field and assume a more competitive position versus the global industry, as multi-national players have not yet established a sustainable market leadership position.

[1] New Energy Vehicles include Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)

Rising Opportunities in China’s Automotive Independent Aftermarket

Gao Feng Insights, May 2017

China’s automotive industry has entered a new phase where new car sales growth decelerates, while the car population expands and the average car age increases.  This brings enormous opportunities for expansion of the independent aftermarket.

In this paper, we examine the complexity of China’s independent aftermarket including the distribution channel and service shops.  We also examine the key success factors, market dynamics and emerging marketing channels in the independent aftermarket.  We will highlight the implications of these developments for key players along the value chain.

Bill Russo Speaks at 22nd CLSA China Forum

Tianjin, China, May 15, 2017

Title: China’s Auto Industry in the Age of Disruption  – The Birth of the “Automobility” Business Model


For global automakers and their suppliers, China represents the greatest opportunity for growth in the 21st century.  Since 2009, China has been the world’s largest market by volume, and surpassed 28 million units in annual car sales in 2016.  Over the coming decades, we believe that China will remain the key battleground for dominance of the global auto industry.  However, this battle will not be waged using the conventional automotive technologies which have been refined over the past century.  We believe several driving forces, which are particularly evident China, have the potential to disrupt the status quo of the automotive industry:

Bill Russo, managing director of Gao Feng Advisory Company, presents on Day 1 of the 22nd CLSA China Forum at The Ritz-Carlton, Tianjin on Monday 15 May.
  • The unique context of China’s urban transportation challenge, the high penetrationrate of mobile internet, combined with the rapid and aggressive introduction of alternative mobility and ownership concepts, are compressing the time needed to commercialize smart, connected car technology and related services.
  • The automotive value chain is being disruptedby non-traditional players as they enter and compete to deliver mobility solutions.  Disruptive new entrants are utilizing big data to draw insights about customers’ mobility patterns in order to address their “pain points” and offer new solutions for their mobility needs.  Such mobility needs are increasingly being met through on-demand and shared services versus individual ownership.

It is the confluence of these forces, along with rapid innovation to address “pain points” associated with mobility in the China context, are positioning China as the catalyst to drive the transformation of the business model and technological underpinnings of the global auto industry.  In this course, we highlight the major disruptions that lie in the path to success in China’s automotive industry, including:

  1. The rapid rise of on-demand mobility and the digital mobility ecosystem
  2. The link between hardware innovation and the economics of the digital ecosystem
  3. The explosive growth of aftermarket services and the emergence of the Independent Aftermarket (IAM) and online-to-offline (O2O) channel

Bill Russo Commentary on Automotive Industry Mid to Long Term Development Plan

China Global Television Network, April 25, 2017

China’s automotive industry is entering a period where discontinuities and disruptions are likely to change the competitive landscape – and this represents an opportune time to guide the development in alignment with China’s overall industrial development.  With the issuance in April 2017 of the Automotive Industry Mid to Long Term Development Plan, the Ministry for Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) provides “guiding principles” for the development of China’s auto industry for next decade.

Bill Russo was a guest on CGTN’s China 24 program to discuss these developments.  His interview appears at the 28th minute of the program.

Click here to view the China 24 program

Ford to Make Electric Cars in China Amid Green Drive

The Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2017

The U.S. auto maker plans to build the Mondeo Energi plug-in hybrid and a new all-electric SUV in China

Ford Motor will start manufacturing electric vehicles in China next year.
PHOTO: ANDREY RUDAKOV/BLOOMBERG NEWS

By TREFOR MOSS

SHANGHAI— Ford Motor Co. F -0.35% said Thursday that it would start building electric cars in China to tap into a state-sponsored boom in green-energy vehicles.

In doing so, the Detroit-based company signaled that it had swallowed industry concerns about bringing proprietary electric-car technology to China, despite misgivings among foreign auto makers about intellectual-property protection in the world’s largest auto market.

“It’s manifest destiny” for foreign car makers to get past those fears and start building electric cars in China, said Bill Russo, managing director of Gao Feng Advisory, a Shanghai consulting firm.

Mass uptake of electric vehicles is set to happen in China first, he said, “and none of those companies can afford not to be relevant to the future of their industry.”

Ford’s local joint venture Changan Ford Automobile Co. will start building the Mondeo Energi plug-in hybrid vehicle in China next year, with a new all-electric sport-utility vehicle set to follow within five years, the company said in a statement.

Electric powertrains will be manufactured locally by 2020, and by 2025 all of Changan Ford’s vehicles will come in electrified versions, it said.

“The time is right for Ford to expand our EV lineup and investments in China,” said Chief Executive Mark Fields.

China is already the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, with over half a million electric or hybrid cars sold there last year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

The government is encouraging their uptake by heavily subsidizing electric cars through payments to manufacturers, which are then able to sell EVs more cheaply. It is also far easier to obtain a license plate for an EV than for a traditional gasoline car in congested cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

Local authorities have also set ambitious targets for electrifying bus and taxi fleets over the next few years, and for the rollout of EV charging facilities.

There could be as many as 32 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025, according to Gao Feng Advisory—a total that is likely to be a substantial share of the global fleet, with uptake of EVs in the U.S. and Europe happening more slowly.

Yet while most gasoline cars sold in China are built by foreign auto makers operating through local joint ventures, almost all of the electric cars sold in China last year were made by Chinese companies operating without foreign input.

Silicon Valley electric-car maker Tesla Inc. was the one notable exception: Without disclosing how many cars it had sold, the company said in a March 1 filing that its 2016 revenue topped $1 billion in China for the first time last year, leading auto-industry analysts to estimate China sales of around 11,000 imported vehicles. Chinese tech company Tencent Holdings Ltd. last week revealed it had taken a 5% stake in Tesla.

Imported cars incur a 25% tariff, making them less competitive, and so auto makers naturally want to build in China, said Michael Dunne of Hong Kong-based Dunne Automotive. But they have been holding out for some relaxation of China’s strict joint-venture rules before committing to large-scale EV manufacturing in China, he said.

Foreign car makers and the Chinese authorities have been “sitting around the poker table”, said Mr. Dunne.

It’s the foreign car makers who appear to have blinked.

In March, Buick, a unit of General Motors Co. , announced plans to start building plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles in China. Last year, GM said it wanted to have 10 new energy vehicles in China by 2020, though it has yet to reveal any plans to start manufacturing its highest-profile EV, the Chevrolet Bolt, in the country.

Last year, Volkswagen AG said it was in talks with local car maker China Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co. about setting up a joint venture to build EVs.

Write to Trefor Moss at Trefor.Moss@wsj.com

Appeared in the Apr. 07, 2017, print edition as ‘Ford Plans Electric Vehicles In China.’

China approves Geely subsidiary’s EV production plan

Bloomberg News | March 7, 2017

China approved the electric vehicle production plan of a company owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., under a special program originally conceived to encourage technology startups to develop EVs.

Ninghai Zhidou Electric Vehicles Co. received permission from the National Development and Reform Commission to invest in a new assembly plant to produce 40,000 electric cars a year, according to the agency’s website.

A total of 880 million yuan ($128 million) will be invested in the plant in Lanzhou in northwestern China, part of parent Geely’s plan to develop EVs, said spokesman Yang Sumi.

“It’s an experiment and Chinese companies use such investments to learn from the market,” said Bill Russo, managing director of Gao Feng Advisory Co. “In an era of disruption, it’s best to move quickly and learn rather than try to make a perfect plan and never actually get it done.”

The Geely subsidiary is the 11th company to get approval to produce EVs under a program started in 2015 to encourage new participants in the EV industry.

Geely, of Hangzhou, owns Volvo Car Corp. and is introducing an upscale brand called Lynk & CO. The company has said it wants 90 percent of its deliveries by 2020 to be generated by sales of conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles.

All companies that have received permission under the National Development and Reform Commission program so far are owned by automakers, parts manufacturers and companies in auto-related fields. Technology firms such as LeEco, NextEV Inc. and Singulato Motors have yet to make the list, despite raising billions from investors with ambitions to become China’s next Tesla Inc.

China’s thriving SUV-only automaker looks to global growth

ASSOCIATED PRESS  / Feb 22, 2017, 03:06 AM

By JOE McDONALD AP Business Writer

In this photo, taken, Feb. 19, 2017, a worker assembles a Haval SUV H3 model at the Great Wall Motors assembly plant in Baoding in north China’s Hebei province. Great Wall Motors became China’s most profitable automaker by making almost nothing but low-priced SUVs. Now it wants to expand into global markets. (Photo by ANDY WONG/AP)

BAODING, China (AP) — Wei Jianjun is the chief matchmaker in China’s love affair with the SUV.

A decade ago, the chairman of Great Wall Motors Ltd. saw opportunity as the bulky vehicles began shedding their image in China as a farm tool. Wei cut back on making sedans and poured resources into its fledgling line of Havals.

That gamble paid off as SUVs caught on with drivers who saw them as the safest ride on bumpy, chaotic streets. By 2013, with demand surging, Great Wall had become China’s most profitable automaker and Wei was a billionaire.

Now, Wei wants to make the Haval a global brand. It’s an ambitious goal that requires advances in safety and features for a company known until now mainly for low prices. Great Wall sells Havals in Australia, Italy and Russia, but exports were less than 5 percent of last year’s output of just under 1.1 million units.

“By 2020, we hope Haval can become the world’s biggest specialty SUV brand,” Wei said at a reception at Great Wall headquarters in this city southwest of Beijing to celebrate sales passing the 1 million mark.

That “globalization strategy” includes working toward meeting American safety standards, Wei said. But he gave no indication when Haval might export to the United States or major European markets such as Germany.

Great Wall is part of a cadre of small but ambitious independent Chinese automakers that grew in the shadow of state-owned giants such as Shanghai Automotive Industries Corp., which assembles vehicles for General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG.

Without foreign joint-venture partners, the independents created their own brands and started exporting to Africa and Latin America.

Geely Holding Ltd., which owns Sweden’s Volvo Cars, plans to start U.S. and European sales of its new Lynk & Co. brand in 2019. BYD Auto, the world’s biggest-selling electric car maker, supplies battery-powered buses and taxis in the United States and Europe. Great Wall opened a European assembly plant in Bulgaria in 2012. It has similar facilities with local partners in Russia, Indonesia, Iran, Egypt and Ecuador.

SUVs have an outsized role in China, where their popularity has helped offset sagging demand for sedans and other vehicles.

Sales of domestic brand SUVs soared 58 percent last year to 5.3 million units out of total sales of 24.4 million in the world’s biggest auto market. They are growing fastest in the lowest price ranges, dominated by Haval and Chinese rivals. That has helped Chinese brands to claw back market share they were losing to global competitors.

The top seller was Haval’s flagship H6, starting at 89,000 yuan ($12,900), which has become China’s most popular vehicle to date. H6 sales surged 55 percent last year to 580,000 units while the overall market grew 15 percent.

“They are definitely one of the most successful car companies in China,” said Yale Zhang, managing director of Automotive Foresight, a research firm.

“This company has some very special strengths,” Zhang said. “Of course, it also has weaknesses, because their products are focused on one model. But they are correcting that. They have tried very hard to cultivate another star product.”

Great Wall’s 2016 profit rose 31 percent to 10.5 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) on revenue of 98.6 billion yuan ($14.4 billion). Wei, 52, ranked No. 36 on the year’s Hurun List of China’s richest entrepreneurs, with a fortune estimated at $5.9 billion.

Begun in the 1980s as a collective that repaired and modified vehicles, Great Wall was bleeding cash when Wei, then 26, left his father’s business making industrial machinery and signed a deal in 1990 to take it over and share profits with the collective’s members.

The company launched a sedan in 1993. Its popular Deer brand pickup trucks were its first hit, in the late ’90s.

Its CEO, Wang Fengying, is a former saleswoman who worked her way up the ranks, becoming the first woman to lead an automaker a decade before GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra.

Wei has a reputation for military-style discipline.

“He wants a quick decision and a thorough execution,” Zhang said. “This style is very different from large automotive companies, which can be a huge bureaucracy. This company definitely doesn’t have that weakness.”

Most of Great Wall’s 60,000 employees work at its Baoding factory complex, a 13-square-kilometer (5-square-mile) mini-city of assembly lines and workshops in long, pale yellow two- and three-story buildings.

A test track that wraps around the complex is banked to allow drivers to push vehicles to over 200 kph (125 mph).

“It’s an orderly, organized, very disciplined operation,” said Bill Russo, managing director of research firm Gao Feng Advisory. “You think, this isn’t China; this is what I would expect to see in Switzerland or Germany.”

Wei has emphasized product quality, in one case hiring Korean auto industry veterans to show Great Wall how to make better body panels, according to Russo, a former Chrysler executive. That has paid off by raising Haval’s image from entry-level to a mass-market brand that can charge higher prices.

“They have cracked that glass ceiling,” said Russo. “Their quality level is better than the basic Chinese car companies.”

Still, Great Wall’s market is increasingly crowded as Chinese rivals roll out dozens of new SUVs. Global brands including VW and GM are preparing to invade Haval’s segment with their own low-cost models.

Competitive pressures have reached a “deep red level,” Wei said.

The company is responding by trying to move up-market.

Haval opened a Shanghai design studio in 2013 and a Technology Center in Baoding, housed in a sleek glass tower with reflecting pools and a 23-story lobby. It includes engineering workshops, a wind tunnel and a low-pressure chamber that can mimic operating conditions up to 5,000 meters (16,500 feet) in altitude.

In November, Great Wall unveiled a premium brand, Wey, an alternate spelling of Wei’s name. It has yet to say how it will attract buyers to models expected to be priced above 200,000 yuan ($29,000).

Haval has struggled to lure drivers to its higher-priced models, such as its top-of-the-line H9, a seven-seater starting at 210,000 yuan ($30,600), that sold just 11,500 units last year. The H8, another full-size model, sold only 7,500 units.

In November, the company rolled out an updated H6, designed by a 50-member team led by Pierre Leclercq, a Belgian-born BMW veteran.

“The H6 is an extremely important product for us,” said Leclercq, the company’s senior vice president for design.

The company’s next rising star is the H2, a four-seat compact SUV that sold 197,000 units last year. But it starts at 87,000 yuan ($12,700), a step down in price instead of toward a higher market segment.

Great Wall also faces pressure from Chinese government rules that require improved fuel efficiency by 2020. That will hurt brands such as Haval that lack smaller models to improve the average of their product lineup.

In response, Great Wall has developed an electric car, the C30 EV, a compact sedan it says can go 200 kilometers (120 miles) on one charge. The company has yet to say when it might go on sale.

China’s Answer to Tesla Is Hopeful Entrant to Global Car Market

The New York Times, January 26, 2017

Lu Qun, chairman of Qiantu Motor, in Beijing in December.

by Michael Schuman

BEIJING — On a windswept lot near Beijing’s main airport, Lu Qun talks up the electric sports car he hopes will transform him into China’s Elon Musk.

“This is a real performance car,” the entrepreneur boasted of his sleek, gray-and-black Qiantu K50. “It’s fun. You can feel the quality. You’ll love driving this car.”

For Mr. Lu, 48, the roadster is his best chance to make it big. After a lifetime of obscurity creating vehicles for other companies, the bespectacled engineer is betting that the rise of electric cars will propel his company — and his country — into the automotive spotlight.

“Traditional auto manufacturers are constrained by their old models,” he said. “We can see things with fresh eyes.”

Across China, government officials, corporate executives, private investors and newcomers like Mr. Lu are in a headlong rush to develop a domestic electric car industry. The country’s goal, like Mr. Lu’s, is to capitalize on the transition to electric to turbocharge the country’s lagging automobile sector to become a major competitor to the United States, Japan and Germany.

That has been a goal of China’s industrial planners for decades, as the government has lavished resources on building homegrown automakers and discriminated against foreign players.

But so far, that effort has failed.

Local manufacturers have lacked the brands, technology and managerial heft to outmaneuver their established rivals, either at home or abroad. Chinese consumers have preferred more reliable Buicks, Volkswagens and Toyotas to the often substandard offerings from domestic manufacturers, while little-known Chinese models have struggled to gain traction overseas.

Electric vehicles could offer a second chance — one China’s policy makers do not intend to miss.

They targeted electric cars for special support in an industrial policy called “Made in China 2025,” which aims to foster upgraded, technologically advanced manufacturing. By 2020, Beijing expects its automakers to be able to churn out two million electric and hybrid vehicles annually — six times the number produced in 2015.

This time, China’s carmakers may be better positioned. Since electric vehicles are a relatively new business for all players, Chinese manufacturers and international rivals are largely starting from the same point.

“There is a smaller gap between where China is today and the rest of the world” in electric cars, said Bill Russo, managing director at Gao Feng Advisory, a Shanghai consultancy, and a former Chrysler executive. “There is room for newer start-up companies to dream big in China.”

Mr. Lu is one of those dreamers.

Fascinated by cars since he was a boy, he studied automotive engineering at Beijing’s prestigious Tsinghua University. Upon graduating in 1990, he joined the research and development team at the China-based joint venture of Jeep, then a division of Chrysler.

During his time there, which included two years in Detroit, Mr. Lu came to feel such overseas operations had limited prospects in China — the ventures’ partners would try to balance their interests, and so were slow to develop strategies and make decisions.

So in 2003, he and nine colleagues started CH-Auto Technology Corporation as a specialty research and design shop for the local car industry. Since then, the firm has designed vehicles for some of China’s biggest automakers.

Mr. Lu decided to start manufacturing his own vehicles because of the shift to electric. Since producing electric cars requires new parts and technologies, he believed a small entrant could better compete with these new vehicles than traditional automakers.

“Electric vehicles won’t just replace cars with conventional engines, but they will bring a huge change to the entire car industry,” Mr. Lu said. “We wanted to be part of this revolution.”

The result is the K50. Designed at his research center, the two-seater has a light, carbon fiber exterior and a console stuffed with touch screens. Rows of batteries propel the roadster to a top speed of about 120 miles per hour and carry it as far as 200 miles on a single charge.

No longer content to watch others produce his designs, Mr. Lu is currently constructing a $300 million factory in Suzhou, a city near Shanghai, to manufacture 50,000 cars a year. In all, he expects to invest as much as $1.4 billion into his venture over five years.

He did not specify what the car would sell for, but Mr. Lu intends to price the K50 at the top of the market when it goes on sale this year.

That sets CH-Auto on a collision course with the industry’s flagship: Tesla.

Elon Musk’s company already has an edge. While Mr. Lu is building his business from scratch, Tesla has been established in China since 2013. CH-Auto will have to persuade wealthy customers to plunk down a large sum on an unfamiliar brand — Qiantu — over Mr. Musk’s recognizable models.

Mr. Lu nevertheless remains confident. He argues the sporty K50 will appeal to a more leisure-oriented driver than Tesla’s cars. As a logo, the company has chosen the dragonfly, because its managers believe the speedy, nimble insect has similar attributes to his electric car. To market it, Mr. Lu is considering opening showrooms in major Chinese cities, backed by a platform to sell online.

Elon Musk “is someone I can learn from,” he said. “Tesla has huge symbolic significance because it is the first company to make people believe a business model solely around electric vehicles is possible.”

But, he added, “we are not looking to create the Chinese Tesla.”

When it comes to competing with Tesla, Mr. Lu can count on ample help from the Chinese government.

To bring down costs and spur demand, the state has unleashed a torrent of cash. It has offered subsidies to manufacturers and tax breaks for buyers, and plowed investments into charging stations to make electric cars more practical.

In all, UBS Securities estimates that the government spent $13 billion promoting electric vehicles in 2015 alone. So far, Mr. Lu has financed the K50 through loans and injections of fresh capital, but says he “won’t refuse” government subsidies if they become available.

Some analysts fear the state’s largess could prove as much bane as boon.

China may be recreating the waste and excess in electric cars that has plagued other state-targeted sectors, like steel and renewable energy, without spurring the technological innovation the economy needs to compete. And even though China’s car market is the world’s biggest, it is still unlikely to absorb all of the electric vehicle projects underway today.

“They are fueling overcapacity, with a lot of wasted money, and I’m doubtful that in the end you’ll have a successful electric car industry,” says Crystal Chang, a lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley who studies China’s auto industry policies.

Significant sums have already been squandered. In September, the Finance Ministry fined five companies for defrauding the government of $150 million by fabricating sales of electric vehicles to obtain more subsidies, and several companies have failed to make an impression.

Mr. Lu is certain, however, that the K50 stands out in a crowded field. The car has already gotten some advance buzz; a review on one popular Chinese website praised its design as “beautiful” and “avant-garde” and its body as “very muscular.”

“A big advantage they have is their knowledge of what it takes to build a quality vehicle,” said Jack Perkowski, managing partner of the Beijing-based consulting firm JFP Holdings and a veteran of China’s car sector. “They have a better chance than many others because of that.”

Mr. Lu is counting on it.

“There are a lot of electric vehicle companies and hot projects attracting a lot of money,” he said. “Not every company and not every car will be successful.”