Trump Attacks BMW and Mercedes, but Auto Industry Is a Complex Target

The New York Times, January 16, 2017

A BMW at the New York International Auto Show in 2016. After praising German manufacturing prowess in an interview with Bild, President-elect Donald J. Trump threatened to impose a 35 percent tariff on every car that BMW imported to the United States.

BEIJING — In his latest criticism of what he sees as unfair trade, Donald J. Trump has taken aim at German cars. Why, the president-elect asked a German newspaper, do so many well-heeled drivers in New York drive a Mercedes-Benz, while Germans buy so few Chevrolets?

Mr. Trump’s question could set the stage for action by his incoming administration against the likes of Mercedes-Benz and BMW, which he criticized for its plans to build a new plant in Mexico. But the president-elect’s musing shows an incomplete understanding of how globalized the auto industry has become since Ronald Reagan went after Toyota and Honda in the 1980s.

That Mercedes-Benz in New York, for example, may have been made in Tuscaloosa, Ala., depending on the model. BMW has a plant in South Carolina that exports 70 percent of the vehicles made there, it says. And Germans might not buy many Chevrolets, which are no longer sold in Germany, but they buy plenty of Opels, which, like Chevy, is owned by General Motors.

Mr. Trump has criticized other companies and industries for moving production out of the United States at the expense of American jobs, such as appliance makers and pharmaceutical companies. But the vehicle industry in general — and particularly foreign automakers, his new target — illustrate how difficult it can be to parse American from international when criticizing global trade.

BMW and Mercedes-Benz — as well as the Japanese carmakers Honda, Nissan and Toyota — employ thousands of factory workers in Alabama, South Carolina, Texas and other states. G.M. gets more than a quarter of its auto-related sales outside North America, while Ford gets a third. Chrysler was bought by Fiat of Italy. Cars of all types increasingly have Chinese parts.

Nevertheless, Mr. Trump has been making a series of ever-broader demands that the auto industry manufacture in the United States to sell in the United States.

The president-elect’s latest comments came on Sunday in excerpts from an interview with the German tabloid newspaper Bild. After praising German manufacturing prowess, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 35 percent tariff — he called it a “tax” — on every car that BMW imported to the United States. BMW should build the factory in the United States, Mr. Trump said, where it would benefit from his plans to slash corporate taxes.

Car exports are the lifeblood of the German economy, and the United States is one of the most important markets. New trade barriers would be a serious threat to German growth and could sour relations with one of the United States’ most important allies.

“We take his comments seriously,” Matthias Wissmann, president of the German Association of the Auto Industry, said in a statement. “Restrictions in the Nafta zone would put a real damper on the economy.”

In a post on Twitter on Sunday, Mr. Trump laid out his expectations for the auto industry: “Car companies and others, if they want to do business in our country, have to start making things here again. WIN!”

The main question lies in what Mr. Trump and his trade advisers decide to do once in office, auto industry officials and trade experts said. Measures to force manufacturers to shift assembly to United States factories and to use more American-made parts could drive up prices for American car buyers and make American vehicles less competitive in world markets.

“The people who lose are the core Trump supporters, who end up buying more expensive products,” said Bill Russo, a former chief executive of Chrysler China who is now the managing director for the automotive industry at Gao Feng Advisory Company, a Chinese consulting firm.

The German carmakers are hoping that, once Mr. Trump takes office, they will be able to convince him that tariffs on vehicle imports would hurt the American economy and get him to modify his views.

“We should seek a dialogue with Trump,” Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute, a research organization in Munich, said in an email. But Mr. Fuest also expressed concern that differences over trade could escalate.

“There is a danger that his policy fails and that he subsequently starts looking for scapegoats,” Mr. Fuest said. “One such scapegoat could be the German economy.”

In some respects, Mr. Trump has a point. The United States has been more open to imports than other large automotive markets, with the result that cars shipped in from abroad represent a considerably larger share of the American market than of markets elsewhere.

European governments have effectively limited imports by putting pressure on vehicle manufacturers not to close high-cost factories or to lay off workers. The Chinese government requires foreign automakers to partner with local manufacturers and sometimes requires them to transfer technology to Chinese companies.

Still, tailoring measures against the auto industry to create jobs in the United States could be difficult. For example, BMW’s Mexico plant would produce 3 Series sedans, which are currently made only in Germany and China. Most likely, the plant in Mexico would take jobs from the factories in Germany and China and create demand for components imported from the United States.

BMW is “very much at home in the U.S.A.,” Glenn Schmidt, a BMW spokesman, said in an email. Mercedes-Benz declined to comment.

The BMW factory site in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, is already swarming with construction workers rushing to make a 2019 deadline to begin production. There is little chance BMW will change its plans and move the assembly lines to the United States.

Mr. Trump’s comments hark back to the 1980s, when the Reagan administration criticized Japan for what it called unfair trade policies in the auto business. That compelled the Japanese government to set annual limits on the number of cars shipped to the United States.

Although President George Bush allowed Japan to drop the limits soon after taking office in 1989, the fights of the 1980s taught the global industry a valuable lesson: Made in America can be a good thing. Japanese and European automakers built assembly plants in the United States, taking the edge off political battles while creating tens of thousands of jobs in the country. Building plants in the United States helped in other areas as well, such as improving the foreign automakers’ logistics and moderating the impact from turbulence in currency markets.

BMW’s largest factory anywhere in the world is in Spartanburg, S.C. It employs nearly 9,000 people and exports 70 percent of the vehicles it makes, BMW says. Daimler makes Mercedes-Benz S.U.V.s and C-Class cars in Tuscaloosa, Ala., and it is building a new factory in Charleston, S.C., to manufacture Sprinter vans, creating more than 1,000 jobs.

Daimler, which also builds Freightliner trucks in the United States, has 22 factories or research and development centers in the United States that employ 22,000 people.

Even Volkswagen has not given up on the United States despite an emissions scandal that has led to $20 billion in civil settlements and criminal penalties. The carmaker, which has long produced cars in Mexico, is expanding a factory in Chattanooga, Tenn., to manufacture a new full-size S.U.V.

G.M. and Ford, meanwhile, saw big opportunities in places like China, where rapid economic development meant more people could afford cars.

A tough stance on autos from Mr. Trump may not have the same impact as that of President Reagan. Since the 1980s, automakers have made fewer of their own parts, buying them instead from hundreds of parts suppliers based all over the globe. That means an American car assembled in the United States could still have large chunks that are manufactured abroad.

Chinese manufacturers dominate the market for replacement parts in the United States, often undercutting prices for parts from the automakers by half or more. Tariffs on Chinese parts would end up being paid by Americans who took their cars in for repairs.

“U.S. consumers are paying a good price for their aftermarket parts,” because of Chinese providers, said Yale Zhang, the managing director of Automotive Foresight, a Shanghai-based consulting firm.

Global automakers’ assembly plants have been rapidly shifting orders from parts factories in the Midwest to plants in China in the last few years. But that trend could stop or reverse if Mr. Trump imposes sizable tariffs on those imports, Mr. Zhang said.

For any move Mr. Trump makes, the devil is in the details. Options include tariffs on imported cars and possibly car parts. He could also prompt a rewrite of the American tax code so that imports — but not exports — are taxed, a move known as border adjustment.

The architect of the Reagan administration’s restrictions on Japanese car imports and of a Reagan-era law that temporarily reduced taxes on exporters was Robert E. Lighthizer. Mr. Lighthizer was deputy United States trade representative at the time. He is now Mr. Trump’s choice to become the United States’ top trade negotiator.

Reimagining Mobility in the China Context

Gao Feng Insights Report, February 2016

We are pleased to share with you our paper titled: Reimagining Mobility in the China Context. This article builds on the themes from our previous article titled Digital Disruption in China’s Automotive Industry, and offers a perspective at how the traditional value chain of the automotive industry is being fundamentally transformed by a new wave of “digital disruptors”.

Unlike traditional automotive OEMs and suppliers, these digital disruptors are leveraging mobile internet technology to present new and innovative “Connected Mobility” services to users, and in the process challenging the business model of the automotive industry. The century old hardware-centric business model of individual car ownership and product-based segmentation is transforming into a new form which leverages internet technology to deliver a broader range of services to address mobility needs.  Such changes are happening faster in China than in the rest of the world, where the size and scale of the urban population and the sheer numbers of mobile internet users are much greater than other markets.

In such an environment, China’s Internet giants (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) along with mobility disruptors such as LeEco and NextEV are vying to deliver an increasingly connected, electrified, smart and personalized mobility experience.  Coupled with the Chinese government’s regulatory push on new-energy vehicle adoption and sustainable transportation infrastructure, China has demonstrated strong potential to become the breeding ground for the Connected Mobility revolution.   As a result, Automotive OEM and supplier CEOs must learn to reimagine mobility in the China context in order to secure a strong position in this new competitive landscape.

We welcome your comments and feedback on our briefing paper or in general about our firm. We would be glad to meet you in person to share our data and perspectives in a fuller manner. Please let us know if you are interested in meeting and discussing directly how we can help you to operationalize these insights.

Thought leadership is core to what Gao Feng does. We will, from time to time, share with you our latest thinking on business and management, especially as it relates to China and China’s role in the world.

Best Regards,

Bill Russo
Managing Director, Gao Feng Advisory Company
bill.russo@gaofengadv.com

Edward Tse
Chairman and CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company
edward.tse@gaofengadv.com

Tel: +86 10 5650 0676 (Beijing); +852 2588 3554 (Hong Kong); +86 21 5117 5853 (Shanghai)

Tax cut for small models drives Chinese car sales

The Financial Times, November 11, 2015

Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai

Tax cut for small models drives Chinese car sales - FT.com Mail, Today at 11.13.18 AM

Beijing’s stimulus plan for the Chinese car market helped October motor vehicle sales to grow at their fastest pace in 10 months, driven by a tax cut on small cars.

Chinese car buyers have been holding back on purchases of big-ticket items such as cars, while consumer spending on other items remained strong on the mainland, which today celebrated another record “single’s day” shopping holiday.

However, the industry has seen some signs of recovery in recent months, with October motor vehicle sales rising 11.8 per cent year-on-year, to 2.2m vehicles, according to the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. This was an acceleration from the 2.1 per cent pace recorded in September.

Sales of sport utility vehicles, the fastest-growing segment and a car popular with the rapidly growing middle class, rose more than 60 per cent in October over the same month a year ago.

Bill Russo, a motor industry consultant in Shanghai, said: “There’s a bounce because of the tax reduction and . . . there has been a trend, even in the slowdown period, of high growth in SUVs, particularly recently launched vehicles in that category are doing quite well.”

Beijing is counting on consumers to boost economic growth as the Chinese economy shifts toward more consumption-led growth. But sentiment among car buyers had been more negative than that affecting other consumers in recent months, with some saying they were waiting for prices to fall.

Beijing responded to weak demand by halving the tax on vehicles with engines of 1.6 litres or smaller to 5 per cent — a measure in place until the end of next year. The tax cut came into effect on October 1.

China’s leaders adopted a similar strategy of cutting taxes on small-engine vehicles in response to the 2008 global financial crisis, launching several boom years for the Chinese car market.

Mr Russo said: “The tax reduction is . . . designed to do two things, stimulate demand in a slowdown but also encourage people to buy a higher mix of locally branded cars” since local automakers’ product portfolio is skewed towards the smaller end.

Tax cuts are likely to boost demand from now until the end of 2016, he said, but added: “My concern is what happens to demand in years to follow, demand may be pulled forward from 2017 into 2016.”

But Yu Jianliang, an independent motor industry analyst, predicted that the boost might not last all next year. “The market is now in the downswing of the business cycle so the policy effect might only last for half a year,” he said. Carmakers were also trying to attract customers by offering more flexible instalment terms and reducing commission charges, he added.

 Additional reporting by Jackie Cai

Click here to read the article at FT.com

Premium carmakers see China drama ahead

The Financial Times, August 30, 2015

Click here to read this article at FT.com

by Andy Sharman, Motor Industry Correspondent

China’s stock market crash this week brought a jolting end to an uncomfortable summer for most of the world’s carmakers, who in past years had enjoyed a smooth ride in the industry’s most profitable market.

For the luxury marques, though, the pain had begun a while back.

A crackdown on ostentatious consumption had threatened to depress sales for the likes of Bentley and Rolls-Royce, ever since Chinese president Xi Jinping launched his anti-corruption campaign in 2013.

This year, the impact has started to show. “Everyone’s really hurting,” says one executive at a luxury carmaker.

A combination of a slowing economy, restrictions on registration plates in larger cities to ease congestion, and increasing consumer appetite for domestic brands — all against the backdrop of the anti-corruption drive — have created a difficult environment for western manufacturers.

“All of these factors have a more direct correlation to sales than a volatile stock market,” says Bill Russo, a Shanghai-based consultant.

Even so, the sudden deceleration in Chinese car sales came as a surprise to some — not least when sales went into reverse in recent months. In July, car sales fell for a second consecutive month, by 6.6 per cent, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Some analysts believe that the scale of the decline is such that multinational manufacturers such as Volkswagen and BMW — respectively the parent companies of Bentley and Rolls-Royce — will be forced to warn on profits in the coming weeks.

“Please keep in mind that we still have some drama ahead of us,” says Max Warburton, an analyst at Bernstein Research.

It amounts to a startling turn in fortunes for the car industry.

But registrations of luxury and ultra-luxury vehicles were down almost 10 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of 2015, based on figures from Bernstein Research.

devaluation of the Chinese currency has not helped, making already expensive European cars even more so.

This has taken a heavy toll on exports of British-made models. Bentley, which counts China as its second-biggest market, reported worldwide first-half sales down almost 12 per cent to 4,600 units. It was a similar story at Rolls-Royce, for which global deliveries fell 10 per cent to about 2,000 cars in the first half. Neither manufacturer breaks out six-month sales by country, but domestic peer Jaguar Land Rover offered a window to the state of the world’s largest car market: sales in China were down 27 per cent in the first half.

Not all luxury car brands have suffered such declines. Porsche, maker of the Cayenne sport utility vehicle, reported sales up 48 per cent in the first half of the year.

But volumes to not tell the full story. China’s economic headwinds have already created what analysts describe as a “hyper-competitive” market. Porsche has admitted that dealers, independent of the company, have been cutting the price of its Panamera sports car by as much as 20 per cent. Chinese pricing website Bitauto also carries examples of Bentley Flying Spurs and Rolls-Royce Wraiths discounted by a similar percentage.

To put that in context, in the past, western luxury cars typically sold at a premium to their list prices in China.

For some companies, this turnround is already having an effect. China accounts for more than 60 per cent of JLR’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, according to Bernstein — and the country’s slowdown has caused net income to almost halve at parent company Tata Motors. Similarly, Bentley’s operating profit fell from €95m to €54m in the first half.

Both companies, however — having ridden the tide of rising wealth in China for several years — are outwardly calm.

“Don’t worry,” said Wolfgang Dürheimer, Bentley chief executive, speaking to the FT last month. “Of course we need to take the slowdown of the market seriously but . . . I strongly believe in the Chinese market. There are some changes going on at present, but on the long-term view it will be a very profitable basis for us.”

Industry executives point to low car density — less than one in 10 people drive in China — and a still growing middle class as growth opportunities. Bentley and Rolls-Royce, for example, plan to launch SUVs — increasingly the vehicle of choice in China — over the next two years.

Amid the turmoil this week came another cause for optimism. Alongside the interest-rate cut announced on Tuesday by the China’s central bank was a targeted intervention in the car industry: the country reduced by 300 basis points the reserve ratio required to be held by auto financing and leasing companies, potentially increasing the funds available to car buyers in the country.

It seemed to suggest that China was committed to supporting car sales. But with two-thirds of premium auto purchases still made in cash, the impact may initially prove limited.

Shanghai in slow lane as market crash accelerates slump in luxury car sales

The Guardian, August 1, 2015

Shanghai-009

Shanghai: the roads are impressive but car sales are not motoring.
Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images

Business appears to be slow at the Mercedes-Benz showroom in the Jing’an district of Shanghai. There are no customers and the staff look bored. A family comes in to look at the cars but appears to have no intention of buying. A salesperson is tight-lipped when asked whether they are seeing fewer customers through the doors.

Car sales in China are slowing after years of rapid growth, and have slumped in the last few weeks. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, numbers sold in June fell 5.3% from May; this drop coincided with the stock market crash that saw the Shanghai Composite Index lose 14% in July. The association previously estimated that sales would grow 7% this year; now it thinks that figure will only be 3%.

A number of international car manufacturers such as Peugeot, Citroën and Ford have warned of sluggish sales in China, while Audi lowered its global sales forecast last week because of slumping demand there. State media reports that some companies have been cutting prices since April in an effort to boost sales.

The sales staff at the Mercedes-Benz dealership would also not comment on whether they had been offering discounts. However, there were signs offering new deals for lower interest financing when purchasing some of the more expensive models on display.

Bill Russo, managing director of management consultancy Gao Feng Advisory Company, confirms that the sector is slowing down. The recent stock market crash is “noise in the system”, he says, but admits that “there could be a short-term impact”. Nonetheless, he believes that the industry should be optimistic about China: “The expansion of the market will be guided by the number of people who have enough money to buy a car, and that number will grow.”

The economic slowdown is also having an impact on the luxury goods market and there are concerns that the share crash will make it worse. “The luxury market has been in slowdown mode since 2012, the start of the anti-corruption campaign,” says Liz Flora, editor-in-chief of Jing Daily, a website covering the luxury industry in China. She adds that the crash “throws a new wrench into the system, and brands are worried it will create even more problems in terms of consumer confidence”.

At the Gucci store at the IAPM shopping centre on Huaihai Road in Shanghai on Friday, there were no customers. It is the largest Gucci store in China; on its two floors, sales staff were chatting to each other and two lingered by the entrance, ready to pounce on anyone walking in.

Many luxury brands have outlets in the IAPM centre, one of Shanghai’s most prestigious addresses. In the Prada store there were a few customers looking at bags but they were outnumbered by staff by two to one. In contrast, the shopping centre itself was buzzing, with many people strolling around, and the food court was doing brisk business.

Mr Kong and Mrs Li were walking around leisurely having a chat. They were in the mall “to take a walk”, said Mrs Li. “I don’t buy designer goods but my daughter does.” Wang Cheng was heading to the Nike store and said he didn’t think most people were there to shop. “Most are here for the air conditioning,” he laughed: temperatures this summer have hit almost 40C.

Click here to read this article at theguardian.com

China car market braced for abnormal era of flat sales

The Financial Times, July 27, 2015

China car market braced for abnormal era of flat sales - FT.com Mail, Today at 6.03.00 PM

On the eve of China’s largest car show in April, executives and analysts braced themselves for a “new normal”: single-digit sales growth after two fat years. Yet some are beginning to wonder if the world’s largest car market is actually entering an abnormal era of flat or even falling sales.

The catalyst for this pessimism was a sharp fall-off in year-on-year sales — 9.4 per cent higher in March, but 3.4 per cent lower by June than the same month last year, according to wholesale figures compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. It was the industry’s first decline since early 2013.

Coupled with an economy growing at its slowest annual rate in 25 years and the recent crisis in China’s stock markets, the outlook appears bleak for an industry that has been a cash cow for mass market and premium car brands for the past five years.

“It will be quite challenging for carmakers because the market is cooling and the trend will not be reversed anytime soon,” says Teng Bingsheng, a professor at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing.

Analysts at Barclays recently revised their 2015 outlook for passenger car sales growth sharply downward, from 8.5 per cent to 1.7 per cent.

Bernstein Research warned that “we’ll need a stronger word than ‘moderation’ to describe the industry’s challenges”.

Marques as diverse as BMW and Volkswagen have reported falling sales. VW experienced a 3.9 per cent fall in first-half group sales to 1.7m units — the first decline in nine years. BMW also caved in to dealer demands for bigger subsidies — a concession since made by others — while its Chinese joint venture partner issued a profit warning on July 13.

For VW, the pain is exacerbated by having just one mass-market SUV on offer in China at a time when the fast-growing segment accounts for one-third of all passenger car sales.

“That’s clearly been a huge miss on their part,” says Janet Lewis, analyst at Macquarie in Hong Kong. “A lot of first-time buyers are in central and western China where road quality is not as good and there’s more focus on the higher ride that you get with an SUV.”

GM, however, bucked the trend with a 2.6 per cent rise in first-half China sales, helping to send its shares up more than 4 per cent after it reported second-quarter earnings on Thursday.

The US automaker bolstered the view of analysts who say China’s car industry is simply maturing, with growth shifting to smaller cities in the country’s vast interior and increasingly driven by new model launches. The market is merely becoming more competitive with lower profit margins, more in line with those in the US and Europe.

China car market braced for abnormal era of flat sales - FT.com Mail, Today at 6.04.46 PM

“It’s easy to be pessimistic when you start to see some year-on-year developments that are negative,” says Bill Russo, a Shanghai-based consultant who notes that car sales also grew less than 5 per cent in China in 2011 and 2012. “But we went through a softening a few years back and I remember having similar conversations about whether this was the big down cycle. It wasn’t.”

“Supply has caught up to demand,” he adds. “[Companies] are going to be giving away some of those very good margins they have enjoyed for quite a long time.”

That may squeeze shareholder payouts too. VW, for example, has seen an almost eightfold increase in the annual dividend it receives from its China joint ventures over the past five years, from €400m in 2009 to €3bn last year

China car market braced for abnormal era of flat sales - FT.com Mail, Today at 6.06.25 PM

Mr Russo’s less gloomy big picture is also supported by basic demographics, with only 52 passenger vehicles per 1,000 people compared with a global average of 150.

Incomes are improving too. According to GaveKal Dragonomics, a Beijing consultancy, the annual income of some 15m Chinese households will exceed $20,500 this year for the first time. Another 19m households will break through the $13,500 level.

As a result, Macquarie has adjusted its 2015 China car sales forecast only moderately, projecting an increase of 10 per cent from 7 per cent previously, and thinks the overall market will grow from 19.7m units last year to at least 32m by 2020.

But as competition intensifies, the biggest rewards will flow to the most cost-efficient carmakers with the quickest model cycles — just as they do in other markets. “It’s harder to sell something that’s older in China, particularly if people know the next model is coming,” says Ms Lewis.

Chinese brands regain market share
July began as June ended for the likes of BMW and Volkswagen, according to analysts at Bernstein Research, with falling year-on-year sales for the two German groups as well as General Motors and Ford’s China joint ventures.

Unexpectedly, traditional laggards including Mercedes-Benz and Japan’s ‘big three’ automakers have been reclaiming market share.

Chinese brands have also seen their share of total sales — currently 41.5 per cent — start to grow again after four consecutive annual declines.

BAIC Motor, Daimler’s main China joint venture partner, is planning on a 29 per cent increase in sales of its own brand cars this year, to 400,000 units. “Our domestic brand business is growing substantially and has exceeded our expectations,” Xu Heyi, BAIC chairman, said last week.

In one sense, Chinese brands simply endured their “correction” a year early, after experiencing steep year-on-year declines in 2014. Like the Japanese companies, whose sales were affected by spats between Beijing and Tokyo in 2012 and 2013, they are improving from a low base.

Mercedes, meanwhile, is reaping the fruits of a restructuring begun two years ago by Hubertus Troska, the China head of its Daimler parent unit, as it begins to catch up with traditional leaders Audi and BMW. Mr Troska’s changes unified a fragmented sales and marketing structure, bringing together separate channels for imported and domestically produced vehicles.

On Thursday, Daimler reported better than expected second-quarter results with an underlying margin of 10.7 per cent. “Mercedes now looks to be the most profitable of the ‘big three’ German premium brands, something inconceivable a few years ago,” said Bernstein’s Max Warburton in a research note. “Daimler management . . . must feel vindicated and delighted.”

Mercedes is also benefiting from a series of new product launches at a time when refreshing the model line-up is becoming essential in the world’s largest car market.

Macquarie’s Ms Lewis says the German company is in “about the sixth inning” of a strong new product cycle in China, with new GLC SUV and E-class sedans in its pipeline.

“Products tend to have a very short life cycle in China,” adds Mr Russo. “If it didn’t launch in the past 18 months, it’s unlikely to be hot. You’ve got to rake it in while you can.”

Additional reporting by Wan Li

Click here to read this at FT.com

Bill Russo Chairs Auto Panel Discussion at J.P. Morgan Global China Summit

Beijing, China. June 3, 2015

Bill Russo chaired a panel discussion with the the China CEOs from the top 3 premium carmakers at the 2015 J.P. Morgan Global China Summit.  The topic of the session was The Next Golden Age of China’s Automotive Industry.

Day 2 - Plenary - The Next Golden Age of China's Automotive Industry Safari, Today at 4.52.48 PM

Panelists:

  • Hubertus Troska, Member of the Board of Management, Daimler AG; Chairman & CEO, Daimler Greater China
  • Karsten Engel, President and CEO, BMW Group China
  • Dietmar Voggenreiter, President, Audi China
  • Chair: Bill Russo, Managing Director, Gao Feng Advisory

Click here to watch the video recording of the panel discussion

Click here to see the introductory slides

Foreign marques surge ahead in China car market

The Financial Times, January 13, 2015

by Tom Mitchell

Multinational carmakers defied slowing economic growth in China last year, increasing their lead over Chinese rivals in the world’s largest automotive market.

Sales of passenger cars, SUVs and minivans increased 9.9 per cent year-on-year to 19.7m units in 2014, the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Monday. That was significantly below the 16 per cent annual growth recorded in 2013, when 10 times more cars were sold in China than in India.

Overall vehicle sales, including buses and trucks, increased 6.9 per cent to 23.5m units. CAAM projected the market would grow 7 per cent this year, to more than 25m vehicles.

Chinese carmakers have blamed a broader slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy for their own poor sales performance last year. In October, the government reported its slowest quarterly economic growth figure — of 7.3 per cent — in more than five years.

Sales of Chinese passenger sedans fell more than 17 per cent last year, leaving domestic brands with a market share of just 22 per cent in the segment, compared with a 27 per cent share for German brands.

Dong Yang, CAAM secretary-general, said Chinese drivers did not appreciate the improvements made by domestic brands this year. “They improved their products and reduced their prices,” Mr Dong said. “But Chinese people care too much about [the cache of foreign] brands. I think this trend will continue in 2015.”

Dealers on the mainland for some of the world’s most best-known car companies, such as BMW, have also cited slowing economic growth in their successful negotiations for bigger rebates and more modest sales targets.

But some analysts argue that their complaints are overdone as the overall sales figures mask a large and growing discrepancy between local and foreign brands, with the latter continuing to enjoy double-digit annual sales growth.

“We’ve got a market that’s 24m units in size and is growing at 7 per cent — we should be celebrating not lamenting,” said Bill Russo, a Shanghai-based automotive analyst. “The issue is that most of the growth is captured by foreign manufacturers while local players are fighting at the bottom of the pyramid.”

“Five per cent growth anywhere else in the world is considered great,” he added. “But here we complain about anything less than double-digit growth. In a market this big, that’s crazy.”

Volkswagen reported at the weekend that its sales in China increased 12.4 per cent to 3.67m units, accounting for almost 40 per cent of its global total.

On Monday, Jaguar Land Rover of the UK said that it had recorded a 28 per cent annual surge in China, its largest market, compared with a 9 per cent increase in overall sales. Owned by India’s Tata Motors, JLR opened its first manufacturing facility in China in October as it races to catch up with VW unit Audi, BMW and Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz, which together account for about 80 per cent of premium vehicle sales in China.

The Chinese government forces overseas car companies to operate joint ventures if they want to manufacture locally. Most have linked with large state-owned auto groups, which reap a steady flow of dividends from the partnerships but have failed to develop strong brands of their own.

Click here to read this article at FT.com